Вадим Хлебников: Возложение областными чиновниками колоссальных надежд на очередной мегапроект у нас принято воспринимать с иронией
Возложение областными чиновниками колоссальных надежд на очередной мегапроект у нас принято воспринимать с иронией. На то есть масса оснований.
Из последних: решение о заморозке строительства Балтийской АЭС и заявление министра транспорта Максима Соколова об отказе от строительства в Калининградской области глубоководного порта. Второй кейс наиболее показателен. Транспортное направление в регионе, как и туризм, является одной из потенциальных точек роста, а если быть точнее, то выживания после окончания действия переходного периода по закону об Особой экономической зоне в Калининградской области в 2016 году. И на этом фоне министр транспорта заявляет, что в области нецелесообразно создавать ключевой элемент транспортной инфраструктуры — глубоководный порт. Без него перспективы развития транспортного комплекса в Калининградской области более, чем туманны.
Похожая ситуация и с туризмом. Калининградский рынок (число жителей – 1 млн человек) чрезвычайно мал для создания рентабельных проектов в этом направлении, рассчитанных на внутренний спрос. Насколько сильно захотят инвестировать в подобные проекты иностранцы — вопрос не более простой, чем, кто из иностранных граждан так называемого дальнего зарубежья (наиболее платежеспособный контингент) захочет ехать в Россию отдыхать на фоне украинского кризиса. К слову, число наших соседей поляков, негативно относящихся к России, по данным Pew Research Center, за последний год выросло с 54 до 81%. По Литве замеры не проводились, но есть основания полагать, что тенденция там сопоставима с польской. При этом ситуация, в которой оказалась Россия, скорее всего, будет долгосрочной, а инвестировать в калининградскую зону предлагается сейчас, а не через 10 лет.
Интерес российского туриста к проекту также может оказаться более, чем скромный. Во-первых, на калининградских курортах холодное море, а россияне, как известно, любят море теплое. Во-вторых, в Калининграде планируется не единственный проект игорной зоны в России. На сегодняшний день их три. В перспективе появление еще двух — в прибрежных Сочи и Крыму. Стоит ли говорить, что если соответствующее решение будет принято, Калининграду от гипотетического пирога российских туристов, стремящихся отдохнуть в игорной зоне, достанутся лишь крохи.
Отдельно стоит оговориться, что калининградские власти вели работу по переносу игорной зоны в атмосфере строжайшей секретности, что не дает возможности оценить инвестиционные перспективы проектов. По моим данным, себестоимость строительства недвижимости в игорной зоне, заставит отказаться от участия в проекте многих потенциальных инвесторов. В 2006 году в калининградской особой экономической зоне была зарегистрирована компания с целью заняться производством игровых автоматов для калининградской игорной зоны и других российских зон. В прошлом году завод в Калининграде был выставлен на продажу и, по моей информации, не продан до сих пор. Этот эпизод, наверное, как никакой другой демонстрирует интерес бизнеса к калининградской игорной зоне.
*мнение шеф-редактора портала RUGRAD.EU приводит «Национальный эксперт»
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Новости по этой теме
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