Григорий Трофимчук: Если произойдёт либерализация визового режима, Калининградская область однозначно станет другой
Разговоры о том, чтобы ослабить безвизовый режим, даже полностью либерализовать, с ЕС, ведутся давно. Прогресса нет никакого, но, видимо, принято решение облегчить экономическую ситуацию в отношении Калининградской области. В этом вопросе главная не формально-техническая сторона вопроса, а политическая сторона. Ситуация за последние несколько лет в мире, в регионе изменилась кардинально. Её не сравнить с той, что была в 2011–2012 годах и немного раньше, когда велись разговоры на эту тему. Сегодня, если либерализация режима произойдёт, не скажу, что будет подорвана политическая ситуация в Калининградской области, но она однозначно станет другой. Учитывая, какую позицию Евросоюз занимает в отношении политики Российской Федерации, можно спрогнозировать подспудное ухудшение диалога между Россией и Западом и вдруг обнаружить, когда ничего «откатить» нельзя, что Калининградская область «проросла» некоторыми элементами, ухудшающими ситуацию в целом для РФ.
Главное базовое обстоятельство: Калининградская область — анклав, то есть территория оторванная от России. Именно в эту «щель», если произойдёт либерализация визового режима, заинтересованные в ослаблении страны, люди, структуры будут наносить удары. И я имею в виду не только НКО, программа которых зачастую не соответствует целям и идеологии России. Надо оценивать, что происходит в экономической сфере. Мы живём не в Советском Союзе. Производство, целые структуры, экономические отрасли на территории региона могут перекупаться. Потом сложно «найти концы» и, особенно, найти кому предъявить претензии.
Напомню, в советские времена многие регионы имели свой особый статус, как на крайнем Советском Западе, так и на Востоке и Юге (Крым, Севастополь и т. д.). Это имело свои основания, но после того, как Советский Союз распался, появились свободные экономические зоны, что стало ситуацией, противоположной закрытому режиму. Для российской экономики это не дало особых результатов, а в общем политическом отношении подорвало комплексную безопасность.
Ещё есть проблема доступа в регион. Не забывайте: сегодня даже через Белоруссию мы не можем попасть на территорию Калининградской области. Поэтому я бы уделил особое внимание поставленным вопросам. Иначе неизбежно настанет день, когда в результате усиления всех антироссийских санкций, доступ в Калининградскую область станет на порядок тяжелее.
* Мнение вице-президента Центра моделирования стратегического развития приводит портал «Региональные комментарии» .
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Новости по этой теме
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