Наталья Зубаревич: В Калининградской области посыпались инвестиции — значит, либо что-то достроили, либо стройка затормозилась
В Калининградской области посыпались в 2024 году инвестиции — минус 17 % по трем кварталам в реальном выражении. Значит, либо что-то достроили, либо стройка затормозилась. Слава богу, у вас нет провала по жилищному строительству: год закончили с цифрой ноль. Это значит, что, в отличие от Санкт-Петербурга, ваши девелоперы не зарывались и почувствовали заранее, что пахнет жареным, и очень аккуратненько дозировали объемы ввода, чтобы не улететь. Поэтому они ушли в ноль, и у них пока как бы есть шанс не провалиться радикально. <...>
Я не могу понять, что у вас происходит с торговлей. Или неправильно считают ценовые индексы... но вы прете, вы потребляете. Страна по торговле 7 %, у вас — 11 %, страна по непродовольственной торговле — 8 %, у вас — 15 %... Что у вас происходит? Торговая статистика кривая, мы это знаем. <...> Нет у вас большого притока туризма-то. В Питере ого-го, там не пройдешь не только по Невскому, а по куче других мест не пройдешь. А у вас — я не понимаю… Я думаю, что или недоучитывают удорожание и провоз: вы же много ввозите на территорию региона, и просто индексы, по которым считают, недоучитывают повышение цен на многие виды товаров... Или вы стали отчаянно потреблять: живу сейчас, живу как последний день. Но я не очень в это верю, потому что калининградцы все-таки рациональные люди.
Почему я с торговлей засомневалась? А у вас общепит почти не растет. По всей стране +9 % рост, а у вас +1,5 %. Значит, количество туристов относительно предыдущего года, мягко говоря, не выросло, потому что они значимые едоки, но их сильно больше не стало.
<...> Когда я увидела, что у вас выросли доходы бюджета за три квартала в рублях на 22 %, я крякнула, потому что в стране-то +9 %. Что случилось? [Антон] Алиханов вам подкинуть из Минпромторга не мог точно. И дальше я смотрю, что у вас, как у всех, пошел вниз налог на прибыль, но он пошел и в Санкт-Петербурге вниз, потому что «крупняк» стал менее прибыльным. Платят хуже. В Питере минус 11 %, у вас минус 6 %, по стране минус 12 % по трем кварталам. Но у вас вырос на 44 % НДФЛ!
<...> И последнее, чем вас могу порадовать: о вас все-таки заботятся. Почти по всей стране трансферты, то есть безвозмездная помощь из федерального бюджета сократилась, а у вас +17 %. Таки поняли, что ваши условия сильно ухудшились. Или эти трансферты целевые — может, на строительство причальных стенок для паромов, еще для чего-то…
* Мнение профессора МГУ, главного научного сотрудника Центра анализа доходов и уровня жизни НИУ ВШЭ приводит РБК.
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Новости по этой теме
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