Илья Тарасов: Калининградского вопроса нет в повестке западных правительств
Возможность полного прекращения транзита грузов в Калининградскую область железнодорожным и автотранспортом исключать нельзя. Вместе с тем в обозримой перспективе реализация такого сценария маловероятна. Скорее, речь может идти о саботаже трехстороннего соглашения о транзите. На уровне Евросоюза принятие решения о разрыве транзитного соглашения сопряжено с множественными рисками, в том числе с политическим риском — расколом общеевропейской солидарности.
Такие евроскептики, как нынешнее правительство или парламентарии в Венгрии, Австрии и Греции, вполне могут, преследуя свои собственные интересы или руководствуясь национальным эгоизмом, воспрепятствовать этому решению. Правительство Литвы находится в более уязвимом положении. В случае эскалации вооруженного конфликта в Донбассе безответственные политики в Вильнюсе могут выступить с демаршем, требуя одностороннего разрыва транзитного соглашения. Такой шаг литовского правительства явно приведет к существенным последствиям и нанесет значительный ущерб российско-литовским отношениям, которые и без того далеки от добрососедства. Не секрет, что к усилению санкций против России призывают не только в США, но и в ряде стран Западной Европы, в Великобритании и Нидерландах, например.
Сейчас так называемого калининградского вопроса нет в повестке западных правительств, однако на уровне экспертного сообщества он время от времени появляется. Уже вполне громко — точно не вполголоса — идут дискуссии о членстве в НАТО Швеции и Финляндии, об изменении статуса морского права в Датских проливах и Финском заливе. В арсенале недружественных стран есть хотя и ограниченный, но далеко не исчерпанный набор санкционных мер.
Убежден, что и Российская Федерация располагает незадействованным (хотя и конечным) списком контрмер, начиная от формального обхода транспортных ограничений путем создания зонтичных компаний из третьих стран. Возможно, появятся монгольские или узбекистанские транспортные фирмы, грузы которых в калининградском порту будут ожидать суда под флагом Эритреи или Экваториальной Гвинеи (все эти страны вполне дружественны России). Может ли Литва воспрепятствовать развитию монгольско-эритрейских торгово-экономических связей? Более существенным является сохранение каналов российско-европейского дипломатического диалога, выведение вопроса о калининградском транзите из общей повестки антироссийских санкций. Ведь ни одна страна НАТО или ЕС не оспаривает суверенитет России над Калининградской областью. Вряд ли у этого вопроса есть рентабельное военное решение.
* Мнение ведущего научного сотрудника Центра геополитических исследований Балтийского региона приводит портал "Региональные комментарии"
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Новости по этой теме
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