Владимир Кузин: В Калининградской области потенциал предприятий используется примерно на 60 %
Конечно, экономика Калининградской области зависит от динамики развития мировой экономики и экономики России в целом. Но тут необходима определенность, что такое Калининградская область. Есть подход, что это форпост, «непотопляемый авианосец» в середине территории Европейского Союза. Тогда экономика проста. Есть вооруженные силы, а остальное население области обеспечивает функционирование военной группировки. Иностранные инвесторы — это нежелательный элемент, и вообще область надо закрывать для иностранцев.
Другой подход: Калининградская область — регион сотрудничества. И тут всё рассматривается с точки зрения развития экономики, в тесном сотрудничестве с соседними странами. Тогда иностранные инвестиции приветствуются, должны формироваться меры по развитию международной кооперации. Для предприятий региона важным фактором развития являются рынки сбыта. Иными словами, в Калининградской области потенциал предприятий используется примерно на 60 %. И эта оценка при односменной работе. То есть при наличии сбыта объем выпуска может быть удвоен.
Но как себя чувствует промышленность? В 2015 году выпуск был меньше, чем годом ранее. Только в октябре отмечен всплеск активности. Этот спад был компенсирован в 2016 году, несмотря на завершение переходного периода закона об особой экономической зоне. Правда, в феврале и марте 2016 года производство росло, в апреле «просело» почти на четверть, Если мы примем во внимание основные факторы, которые определяют динамику работы промышленности, то увидим, что этот вид деятельности в нашем регионе вполне стабильно работает. Конечно, роста не показывает, но в целом справляется с ситуацией. Однако, если говорить о будущем, надо смотреть на инвестиции.
Рассматривая динамику натурального объема инвестиций в основной капитал организаций Калининградской области, необходимо помнить о двух вещах. Первая — это инфляция, которая значительно «съела» стоимость денег, поэтому, если привести к ценам одного года, мы увидим снижение объема инвестиций.
Второе — чемпионат мира по футболу, в рамках подготовки к которому вырос объем инвестиций. То есть можно сказать, что объем инвестиций снижается, что может привести к снижению объемов производства в будущем. Другой вид экономической деятельности, который выиграл и от завершения режима особой экономической зоны, и от отдельных защитных экономических мер, введенных в 2014 году, – сельское хозяйство. У сельскохозяйственных производителей рост начался в 2012 году, благодаря финансовой поддержке. В 2014-м и 2015-м годовой рост составлял около 10 %. Правда, в 2016 году производство сельхозпродукции снизилось на 5 %, поскольку дожди не позволили собрать весь урожай.
Для того чтобы экономика Калининградской области развивалась, необходимо выполнение некоторых условий. Первое — сформировать понимание того, что такое Калининградская область. Второе — доступ к рынкам. Если будет ясность с первыми двумя вопросами, то третий — доступ к инвестициям — будет решен. Конечно, мне бы хотелось, чтобы были созданы условия для международного сотрудничества. Но это будет выполняться всегда, вопрос только, в каком объеме. И только при достижении всех перечисленных позиций экономика области будет развиваться.
* Мнение доцента КГТУ приводит журнал "Балтийский статус".
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Новости по этой теме
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