Минэкономразвития: Рост доходов россиян обнулится
Фото rugrad.eu
Вчера Минэкономики представило новый макропрогноз на 2014-2017 годы, отражающий влияние войны санкций и планируемых изменений в налоговой политике Белого дома на состояние российской экономики. Первой пропала под пересмотр инфляция. В 2014 году ее порог из-за эмбарго на импорт продовольствия увеличен с 6,5% до 7,5%. С 2015 года на рост цен могут повлиять также введение регионального налога с продаж и уплата страховых взносов в систему ОМС со всей суммы зарплаты — оба этих предложения сейчас обсуждает правительство. Это увеличит предельные темпы роста цен до 7%. Об этом сообщает газета «Коммерсант».
Независимые экономисты такие оценки считают слишком оптимистичными. Глава центра макроэкономических исследований Сбербанка Юлия Цепляева прогнозирует, что к концу 2014 года инфляция достигнет 9%, а к концу 2015 года замедлится до 7,3%. По расчетам Дмитрия Полевого из ING Eurasia, в 2014 году импортные ограничения увеличат цены на 1,2-1,5 процентного пункта (п. п.) — до 8%, а в 2015-м только налог с продаж добавит к инфляции до 2 п. п. Кроме того, в ведомстве господина Улюкаева не исключают, что РЖД удастся добиться индексации своих тарифов с 2015 года на уровне выше прогнозной инфляции (на 10%), это добавит давления на цены и экономический блок правительства со стороны и других госкомпаний.
Вслед за инфляцией в прогнозе Минэкономики в сторону ухудшения резко поползли показатели, связанные с доходами граждан и уровнем частного потребления, которое в последние годы обеспечивало две трети роста ВВП. В 2014 году на динамику оборота розницы инфляция не повлияет (его рост по итогам года сохранен на уровне 1,9%) — в министерстве считают, что реальная зарплата вырастет даже сильнее, чем ожидалось ранее (на 1,7%), а падение спроса отразится на потреблении услуг (1% вместо 1,6% роста). В 2015 году реальная зарплата расти перестанет (0,2%), а динамика розницы и услуг фактически обнулится (0,6%). Удержать прежние 0,5% роста ВВП во второй половине 2014 года должны замещение импорта с Украины в металлургии и химии, увеличение внутренней переработки продовольствия и хороший урожай. В 2015 году эти временные факторы себя исчерпают, и экономика покажет максимум 1% роста вместо 2%, на которые рассчитывало правительство в мае, главным образом из-за крайне низкой динамики инвестиций (1% вместо 2,4%, под влиянием в том числе налоговых нововведений правительства).
{"ID":"704543","~ID":"704543","TAGS":"Россия, статистика, зарплаты, ВВП, прогноз","~TAGS":"Россия, статистика, зарплаты, ВВП, прогноз","NAME":"Минэкономразвития: Рост доходов россиян обнулится","~NAME":"Минэкономразвития: Рост доходов россиян обнулится","IBLOCK_ID":"54","~IBLOCK_ID":"54","IBLOCK_SECTION_ID":"829","~IBLOCK_SECTION_ID":"829","DETAIL_TEXT":"\u003Cp\u003EВчера Минэкономики представило новый макропрогноз на 2014-2017 годы, отражающий влияние войны санкций и планируемых изменений в налоговой политике Белого дома на состояние российской экономики. Первой пропала под пересмотр инфляция. В 2014 году ее порог из-за эмбарго на импорт продовольствия увеличен с 6,5% до 7,5%. С 2015 года на рост цен могут повлиять также введение регионального налога с продаж и уплата страховых взносов в систему ОМС со всей суммы зарплаты \u0026mdash; оба этих предложения сейчас обсуждает правительство. Это увеличит предельные темпы роста цен до 7%. Об этом \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/kommersant.ru\/doc\/2553445\u0022 \u003Eсообщает\u003C\/a\u003E газета \u0026laquo;Коммерсант\u0026raquo;.\r\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\r\nНезависимые экономисты такие оценки считают слишком оптимистичными. Глава центра макроэкономических исследований Сбербанка Юлия Цепляева прогнозирует, что к концу 2014 года инфляция достигнет 9%, а к концу 2015 года замедлится до 7,3%. По расчетам Дмитрия Полевого из ING Eurasia, в 2014 году импортные ограничения увеличат цены на 1,2-1,5 процентного пункта (п. п.) \u0026mdash; до 8%, а в 2015-м только налог с продаж добавит к инфляции до 2 п. п. Кроме того, в ведомстве господина Улюкаева не исключают, что РЖД удастся добиться индексации своих тарифов с 2015 года на уровне выше прогнозной инфляции (на 10%), это добавит давления на цены и экономический блок правительства со стороны и других госкомпаний.\r\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\r\nВслед за инфляцией в прогнозе Минэкономики в сторону ухудшения резко поползли показатели, связанные с доходами граждан и уровнем частного потребления, которое в последние годы обеспечивало две трети роста ВВП. В 2014 году на динамику оборота розницы инфляция не повлияет (его рост по итогам года сохранен на уровне 1,9%) \u0026mdash; в министерстве считают, что реальная зарплата вырастет даже сильнее, чем ожидалось ранее (на 1,7%), а падение спроса отразится на потреблении услуг (1% вместо 1,6% роста). В 2015 году реальная зарплата расти перестанет (0,2%), а динамика розницы и услуг фактически обнулится (0,6%). Удержать прежние 0,5% роста ВВП во второй половине 2014 года должны замещение импорта с Украины в металлургии и химии, увеличение внутренней переработки продовольствия и хороший урожай. В 2015 году эти временные факторы себя исчерпают, и экономика покажет максимум 1% роста вместо 2%, на которые рассчитывало правительство в мае, главным образом из-за крайне низкой динамики инвестиций (1% вместо 2,4%, под влиянием в том числе налоговых нововведений правительства).\u003C\/p\u003E","~DETAIL_TEXT":"\u003Cp\u003EВчера Минэкономики представило новый макропрогноз на 2014-2017 годы, отражающий влияние войны санкций и планируемых изменений в налоговой политике Белого дома на состояние российской экономики. Первой пропала под пересмотр инфляция. В 2014 году ее порог из-за эмбарго на импорт продовольствия увеличен с 6,5% до 7,5%. С 2015 года на рост цен могут повлиять также введение регионального налога с продаж и уплата страховых взносов в систему ОМС со всей суммы зарплаты \u0026mdash; оба этих предложения сейчас обсуждает правительство. Это увеличит предельные темпы роста цен до 7%. Об этом \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/kommersant.ru\/doc\/2553445\u0022 \u003Eсообщает\u003C\/a\u003E газета \u0026laquo;Коммерсант\u0026raquo;.\r\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\r\nНезависимые экономисты такие оценки считают слишком оптимистичными. Глава центра макроэкономических исследований Сбербанка Юлия Цепляева прогнозирует, что к концу 2014 года инфляция достигнет 9%, а к концу 2015 года замедлится до 7,3%. По расчетам Дмитрия Полевого из ING Eurasia, в 2014 году импортные ограничения увеличат цены на 1,2-1,5 процентного пункта (п. п.) \u0026mdash; до 8%, а в 2015-м только налог с продаж добавит к инфляции до 2 п. п. Кроме того, в ведомстве господина Улюкаева не исключают, что РЖД удастся добиться индексации своих тарифов с 2015 года на уровне выше прогнозной инфляции (на 10%), это добавит давления на цены и экономический блок правительства со стороны и других госкомпаний.\r\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\r\nВслед за инфляцией в прогнозе Минэкономики в сторону ухудшения резко поползли показатели, связанные с доходами граждан и уровнем частного потребления, которое в последние годы обеспечивало две трети роста ВВП. В 2014 году на динамику оборота розницы инфляция не повлияет (его рост по итогам года сохранен на уровне 1,9%) \u0026mdash; в министерстве считают, что реальная зарплата вырастет даже сильнее, чем ожидалось ранее (на 1,7%), а падение спроса отразится на потреблении услуг (1% вместо 1,6% роста). В 2015 году реальная зарплата расти перестанет (0,2%), а динамика розницы и услуг фактически обнулится (0,6%). 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Новости по этой теме
