Эксперты: Отсутствие доверия приводит к инвестициям в устранение искусственных рисков по энергобезопасности Калининградской области

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{"ID":"800707","~ID":"800707","TAGS":"энергетика, энергобезопасность, генерация, геополитика","~TAGS":"энергетика, энергобезопасность, генерация, геополитика","NAME":"Эксперты: Отсутствие доверия приводит к инвестициям в устранение искусственных рисков по энергобезопасности Калининградской области","~NAME":"Эксперты: Отсутствие доверия приводит к инвестициям в устранение искусственных рисков по энергобезопасности Калининградской области","IBLOCK_ID":"54","~IBLOCK_ID":"54","IBLOCK_SECTION_ID":"829","~IBLOCK_SECTION_ID":"829","DETAIL_TEXT":"\u003Cp\u003E\r\n\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\r\n\t Проблема энергетической безопасности Калининградской области — одна из наиболее острых и постоянно обсуждаемых тем в стратегии развития региона. Она сильно политизирована, поскольку ключевые аспекты проблемы имеют не экономическую или техническую основу, а во многом обусловлены причинами геополитики. К такому выводу приходят аналитик Гаагского центра стратегических исследований Артур Усанов и доцент БФУ им. И. Канта Александр Харин в своей статье «О проблеме обеспечения энергетической безопасности Калининградской области», опубликованной в «Вестнике БФУ им. И. Канта».\r\n\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\r\n\t «Нетрудно заметить, что вместе с изменением политического климата вокруг региона меняются и подходы к решению проблемы обеспечения ее энергетической безопасности. Так, если в начале 2000-х гг. в дискуссиях о будущем Калининградской области в качестве основного, как правило, фигурировал сценарий ее развития как территории экономического сотрудничества России и ЕС, в том числе в энергетической сфере, то в последние несколько лет (по крайней мере, в планах развития энергетики) преобладающим стал подход, рассматривающий регион как \u0022энергетический остров\u0022, - отмечают в своей статье эксперты.\u0026nbsp;- Стратегия развития региональной энергетики — важнейшего сектора экономики Калининградской области — формируется под влиянием геополитических и экономических целей, баланс между которыми носит конъюнктурный характер и в основном слабо соотносится с базовыми принципами энергетической безопасности. Но тот простой факт, что требуется удвоить производство электроэнергии (а также вложить в эту отрасль и в обеспечивающую ее инфраструктуру огромные и, по сути, неокупаемые инвестиции) только для того, чтобы обеспечить надежность работы региональной энергосистемы примерно на нынешнем уровне, предельно ясно показывает стоимость энергетической независимости Калининградской области для Российской Федерации».\r\n\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\r\n\t При этом эксперты отмечают, что страны Балтии, реализуя собственную политику энергетической независимости от России, также вынуждены идти на значительные издержки, сомнительные с экономической точки зрения, лишь для того, чтобы изолировать свои энергосистемы от энергосистемы Калининградской области, не представляющей угрозы их энергетической безопасности ни сейчас, ни в будущем. «Отсутствие доверия и нежелание сотрудничать между Россией и другими странами региона вынуждает стороны предпринимать меры по снижению зависимости друг от друга и обусловливает инвестиции, единственной целью которых является минимизация внешнеполитических рисков, во многом носящих искусственный характер. Такое поведение подобно дилемме безопасности в международных отношениях: если одна сторона принимает меры по укреплению своей безопасности, то другая сторона, расценивая их как недружественные намерения, реализует контрмеры, что приводит к дальнейшей эскалации конфликта, в то время как наилучшим решением для обеих сторон была бы ее остановка. В случае рассматриваемой нами проблемы обеспечения энергетической безопасности Калининградской области оптимальное решение означает, что Россия совместно с соседями по региону должна найти компромиссный, не противоречащий интересам всех сторон вариант интеграции Калининградской области в общий энергетический рынок стран Балтийского моря и Европы», - отмечают эксперты.\r\n\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp align=\u0022JUSTIFY\u0022\u003E\r\n\t Напомним, что по состоянию на декабрь 2014 года предполагалось, что госкомпания «Роснефтегаз» \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/rugrad.eu\/news\/735152\/\u0022\u003Eвложит порядка 60 млрд руб.\u003C\/a\u003E в строительство на территории области газово-угольной генерации, создающей дублирующую мощность ТЭЦ-2, которая снабжается топливом по газопроводу, проходящему по территории Белоруссии и Литвы.\r\n\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\r\n\t Предполагалось, что вложения будут производится на возвратной основе. Норма доходности закладывалась на уровне 14 %.\r\n\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\r\n\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n \u003Cbr\u003E","~DETAIL_TEXT":"\u003Cp\u003E\r\n\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\r\n\t Проблема энергетической безопасности Калининградской области — одна из наиболее острых и постоянно обсуждаемых тем в стратегии развития региона. Она сильно политизирована, поскольку ключевые аспекты проблемы имеют не экономическую или техническую основу, а во многом обусловлены причинами геополитики. К такому выводу приходят аналитик Гаагского центра стратегических исследований Артур Усанов и доцент БФУ им. И. Канта Александр Харин в своей статье «О проблеме обеспечения энергетической безопасности Калининградской области», опубликованной в «Вестнике БФУ им. И. Канта».\r\n\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\r\n\t «Нетрудно заметить, что вместе с изменением политического климата вокруг региона меняются и подходы к решению проблемы обеспечения ее энергетической безопасности. Так, если в начале 2000-х гг. в дискуссиях о будущем Калининградской области в качестве основного, как правило, фигурировал сценарий ее развития как территории экономического сотрудничества России и ЕС, в том числе в энергетической сфере, то в последние несколько лет (по крайней мере, в планах развития энергетики) преобладающим стал подход, рассматривающий регион как \u0022энергетический остров\u0022, - отмечают в своей статье эксперты.\u0026nbsp;- Стратегия развития региональной энергетики — важнейшего сектора экономики Калининградской области — формируется под влиянием геополитических и экономических целей, баланс между которыми носит конъюнктурный характер и в основном слабо соотносится с базовыми принципами энергетической безопасности. Но тот простой факт, что требуется удвоить производство электроэнергии (а также вложить в эту отрасль и в обеспечивающую ее инфраструктуру огромные и, по сути, неокупаемые инвестиции) только для того, чтобы обеспечить надежность работы региональной энергосистемы примерно на нынешнем уровне, предельно ясно показывает стоимость энергетической независимости Калининградской области для Российской Федерации».\r\n\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\r\n\t При этом эксперты отмечают, что страны Балтии, реализуя собственную политику энергетической независимости от России, также вынуждены идти на значительные издержки, сомнительные с экономической точки зрения, лишь для того, чтобы изолировать свои энергосистемы от энергосистемы Калининградской области, не представляющей угрозы их энергетической безопасности ни сейчас, ни в будущем. «Отсутствие доверия и нежелание сотрудничать между Россией и другими странами региона вынуждает стороны предпринимать меры по снижению зависимости друг от друга и обусловливает инвестиции, единственной целью которых является минимизация внешнеполитических рисков, во многом носящих искусственный характер. Такое поведение подобно дилемме безопасности в международных отношениях: если одна сторона принимает меры по укреплению своей безопасности, то другая сторона, расценивая их как недружественные намерения, реализует контрмеры, что приводит к дальнейшей эскалации конфликта, в то время как наилучшим решением для обеих сторон была бы ее остановка. В случае рассматриваемой нами проблемы обеспечения энергетической безопасности Калининградской области оптимальное решение означает, что Россия совместно с соседями по региону должна найти компромиссный, не противоречащий интересам всех сторон вариант интеграции Калининградской области в общий энергетический рынок стран Балтийского моря и Европы», - отмечают эксперты.\r\n\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp align=\u0022JUSTIFY\u0022\u003E\r\n\t Напомним, что по состоянию на декабрь 2014 года предполагалось, что госкомпания «Роснефтегаз» \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/rugrad.eu\/news\/735152\/\u0022\u003Eвложит порядка 60 млрд руб.\u003C\/a\u003E в строительство на территории области газово-угольной генерации, создающей дублирующую мощность ТЭЦ-2, которая снабжается топливом по газопроводу, проходящему по территории Белоруссии и Литвы.\r\n\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E\r\n\t Предполагалось, что вложения будут производится на возвратной основе. 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