Рубль пал под натиском дешевых денег

Фото rugrad.eu

{"ID":"610823","~ID":"610823","TAGS":"рубль, доллар, евро, курс, бивалютная корзина","~TAGS":"рубль, доллар, евро, курс, бивалютная корзина","NAME":"Рубль пал под натиском дешевых денег","~NAME":"Рубль пал под натиском дешевых денег","IBLOCK_ID":"54","~IBLOCK_ID":"54","IBLOCK_SECTION_ID":"4067","~IBLOCK_SECTION_ID":"4067","DETAIL_TEXT":"\r\n\u003Cp\u003EНакануне рубль показал самое сильное ослабление за последние 12 месяцев - до 37,82 по отношению к бивалютной корзине и до 43,75 - к евро. К концу торговой сессии стоимость бивалютной корзины составила 37,79 руб., а доллар торговался на отметке 32,95. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E Утром в среду, 31 июля, рубль преодолел уровень 33 руб. за доллар, чему отчасти способствовало и небольшое снижение в паре евро\/доллар. Корзина находится на годовых максимумах, евро также подрастает. Евро в первые минуты торгов поднялся до 43,78 руб. - так высоко единая валюта бывала только зимой 2009 г. Рубль падает к доллару и евро уже пятый день подряд. В итоге бивалютная корзина, которая характеризует отношение рубля к евро и доллару, добралась до максимальных отметок с 2009 г. Рубль продолжает слабеть на фоне усиливающегося спроса со стороны локальных игроков и иностранных спекулянтов, сообщает \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/quote.rbc.ru\/topnews\/2013\/07\/31\/33997571.html\u0022 \u003EРБКQuote\u003C\/a\u003E. Снижение цен на нефть стало одной из причин ослабления рубля. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E Неопределенность относительно реакции рынка на показатели ВВП США и заседание ФРС сохраняется. Рынок обеспокоен тем, что ФРС может начать сокращать программу QE, а значит, аппетиты к риску по обе стороны океана могут снизиться. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E В случае слабых показателей ВВП рост пары евро\/доллар может дать рублю некоторую передышку, особенно учитывая его снижение почти на 1 руб. менее чем за неделю, ожидания увеличения интервенций ЦБ и близость к недавним минимумам, полагают эксперты. Но в среднесрочной перспективе экономисты сохраняют негативный взгляд на российскую валюту, и причин для резкого роста рубля довольно мало. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E Нервозности в преддверии заседания ФРС и так хватает, однако в начале августа экспортеры будут оказывать слабую поддержку рублю, отчего нервов на рынке меньше не становится, отмечает аналитик Nordea Bank Дмитрий Савченко. С другой стороны, ЦБ готовится увеличивать интервенции до 400 млн долл. в день, что уже является вполне ощутимой суммой для рынка. Этот факт в ближайшие недели поддержит котировки российской валюты, считает эксперт. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E Свой вклад в ослабление рубля внесли и новые операции российского ЦБ. Банк России на днях предоставил банкам более 300 млрд \u0026quot;дешевых\u0026quot; рублей, что и вызвало кратковременное бегство из национальной валюты. Между тем эти панические настроения могут очень скоро закончиться, ведь деньги, которые ЦБ РФ предоставил на аукционе, будут со временем вычтены из других операций предоставления ликвидности, говорит И.Копейкин. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E Однако экономисты Sberbank Investment Research обеспокоены тем, что рост ликвидности денежного рынка благодаря расширению операций ЦБ по долгосрочному рефинансированию банков под залог нерыночных активов может стать риском для стабильности рубля - \u0026quot;щедрость\u0026quot; ЦБ может создать предпосылки для разгона инфляции и девальвации российской валюты. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E В последние несколько недель рубль показывал отстающую динамику по отношению к другим валютам развивающихся рынков (с середины июля - на 1,7%), и специалисты \u0026quot;ВТБ Капитала\u0026quot; не верят в то, что установившийся курс рубля, находящийся вблизи верхней границы коридора бивалютной корзины, соответствует ежемесячной продаже валюты в объеме 8,0 млрд долл. Поэтому аналитики считают, что на текущих уровнях имеет смысл вновь открывать длинные позиции по рублю на фоне некоторой неопределенности в преддверии заседания Комитета по операциям на открытом рынке (FOMC) ФРС США.\u003C\/p\u003E\r\n","~DETAIL_TEXT":"\r\n\u003Cp\u003EНакануне рубль показал самое сильное ослабление за последние 12 месяцев - до 37,82 по отношению к бивалютной корзине и до 43,75 - к евро. К концу торговой сессии стоимость бивалютной корзины составила 37,79 руб., а доллар торговался на отметке 32,95. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E Утром в среду, 31 июля, рубль преодолел уровень 33 руб. за доллар, чему отчасти способствовало и небольшое снижение в паре евро\/доллар. Корзина находится на годовых максимумах, евро также подрастает. Евро в первые минуты торгов поднялся до 43,78 руб. - так высоко единая валюта бывала только зимой 2009 г. Рубль падает к доллару и евро уже пятый день подряд. В итоге бивалютная корзина, которая характеризует отношение рубля к евро и доллару, добралась до максимальных отметок с 2009 г. Рубль продолжает слабеть на фоне усиливающегося спроса со стороны локальных игроков и иностранных спекулянтов, сообщает \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/quote.rbc.ru\/topnews\/2013\/07\/31\/33997571.html\u0022 \u003EРБКQuote\u003C\/a\u003E. Снижение цен на нефть стало одной из причин ослабления рубля. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E Неопределенность относительно реакции рынка на показатели ВВП США и заседание ФРС сохраняется. Рынок обеспокоен тем, что ФРС может начать сокращать программу QE, а значит, аппетиты к риску по обе стороны океана могут снизиться. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E В случае слабых показателей ВВП рост пары евро\/доллар может дать рублю некоторую передышку, особенно учитывая его снижение почти на 1 руб. менее чем за неделю, ожидания увеличения интервенций ЦБ и близость к недавним минимумам, полагают эксперты. Но в среднесрочной перспективе экономисты сохраняют негативный взгляд на российскую валюту, и причин для резкого роста рубля довольно мало. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E Нервозности в преддверии заседания ФРС и так хватает, однако в начале августа экспортеры будут оказывать слабую поддержку рублю, отчего нервов на рынке меньше не становится, отмечает аналитик Nordea Bank Дмитрий Савченко. С другой стороны, ЦБ готовится увеличивать интервенции до 400 млн долл. в день, что уже является вполне ощутимой суммой для рынка. Этот факт в ближайшие недели поддержит котировки российской валюты, считает эксперт. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E Свой вклад в ослабление рубля внесли и новые операции российского ЦБ. Банк России на днях предоставил банкам более 300 млрд \u0026quot;дешевых\u0026quot; рублей, что и вызвало кратковременное бегство из национальной валюты. Между тем эти панические настроения могут очень скоро закончиться, ведь деньги, которые ЦБ РФ предоставил на аукционе, будут со временем вычтены из других операций предоставления ликвидности, говорит И.Копейкин. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E Однако экономисты Sberbank Investment Research обеспокоены тем, что рост ликвидности денежного рынка благодаря расширению операций ЦБ по долгосрочному рефинансированию банков под залог нерыночных активов может стать риском для стабильности рубля - \u0026quot;щедрость\u0026quot; ЦБ может создать предпосылки для разгона инфляции и девальвации российской валюты. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E В последние несколько недель рубль показывал отстающую динамику по отношению к другим валютам развивающихся рынков (с середины июля - на 1,7%), и специалисты \u0026quot;ВТБ Капитала\u0026quot; не верят в то, что установившийся курс рубля, находящийся вблизи верхней границы коридора бивалютной корзины, соответствует ежемесячной продаже валюты в объеме 8,0 млрд долл. 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