«Освобождение» рубля в 2015 году: за и против

{"ID":"546349","~ID":"546349","TAGS":"","~TAGS":"","NAME":"«Освобождение» рубля в 2015 году: за и против","~NAME":"«Освобождение» рубля в 2015 году: за и против","IBLOCK_ID":"54","~IBLOCK_ID":"54","IBLOCK_SECTION_ID":"4067","~IBLOCK_SECTION_ID":"4067","DETAIL_TEXT":"\r\n\u003Cp\u003EОтмена контроля Центробанка над курсом национальной валюты из некого абстрактного явления, обещанного на те времена, \u0026laquo;когда все будет хорошо\u0026raquo;, превращается в реально планируемую меру с названными сроками. Пояснения по этому поводу дал агентству \u0026laquo;Прайм\u0026raquo; первый зампред Банка России Алексей Улюкаев. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E В интервью он заявил, что регулятор принял решение перейти к полному инфляционному таргетированию (контролю) к 2015 г. При этом он откажется от валютного таргетирования, переведя рубль к свободно плавающему курсу. В официальных документах не зафиксировано, на какой год планируется \u0026laquo;освобождение\u0026raquo; российской валюты, однако Алексей Улюкаев сказал, что, по его мнению, это произойдет также в 2015 г. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E Сегодня контроль ЦБ над курсами заключается в установлении валютного коридора, в пределах которого может \u0026laquo;бродить\u0026raquo; рубль. С июля рамки этого коридора составляют 31,65 - 38,65 рублей по бивалютной корзине. Если курс российской денежной единицы приближается к тому или другому краю, Центробанк начинает \u0026laquo;выравнивать\u0026raquo; его, соответственно продавая или покупая валюту. Запуск рубля в \u0026laquo;свободное плавание\u0026raquo; означает отказ от подобных мер и формирование курса исключительно независимыми макроэкономическими факторами. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E Неожиданное откровение зампреда ЦБ вызвало противоречивые оценки банкиров и аналитиков. К 2014 г. российская экономика столкнется с новыми, неизвестными сейчас проблемами, предупреждает директор Центра структурных исследований Института экономической политики Алексей Ведев. Сальдо между экспортом и импортом (ныне положительное) может обнулиться, а это станет (наряду с нефтяными ценами) ключевым фактором формирования свободного курса рубля. Как результат мы получим огромную волатильность курса - до 30 - 40%. А это уже опасно для национальной экономики. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E Подобного мнения придерживается и замдиректора Центра развития НИУ \u0026laquo;Высшая школа экономики\u0026raquo; Валерий Миронов. Даже сейчас, при относительно стабильном макроэкономическом фоне отпущенный на свободу курс рубля мог бы упасть до уровня в 41 рубль за доллар, пугает он. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E Однако высказываются и противоположные мнения, причем не только правительственными чиновниками. Главный экономист УК \u0026laquo;Открытие\u0026raquo; Владимир Тихомиров напомнил, что последние два года валютный рынок живет уже практически при свободном курсе, интервенции ЦБ незначительны. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E Об этом же говорила и главный экономист \u0026laquo;Альфа-банка\u0026raquo; Наталья Орлова в интервью Business FM. В ближайшее время ведущие мировые экономики будут сохранять слабые позиции своих валют, и \u0026laquo;освобождение\u0026raquo; ничем не грозит рублю, добавила она. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E Начальник аналитического отдела ИК \u0026laquo;Церих Капитал Менеджмент\u0026raquo; Николай Подлевских в свою очередь указал на то, что и при \u0026laquo;свободном плавании\u0026raquo; рубля Банк России сможет в исключительных случаях проводить интервенции: так делают многие крупные центробанки. В долгосрочной перспективе плавающий курс может привести к установлению паритета покупательной способности (что для рубля означает укрепление). \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E В целом, все аналитики сходятся на том, что решающее значение при формировании курса \u0026laquo;свободного\u0026raquo; рубля будут играть цены на нефть. Подобную ситуацию мы наблюдаем и сейчас. А значит, даже если обещания Алексея Улюкаева и сбудутся в срок, это, скорее всего, мало что изменит на российском валютном рынке.Business FM Business FM \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E Источник: \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/bankinform.ru\/\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 \u003Ehttp:\/\/bankinform.ru\/\u003C\/a\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n","~DETAIL_TEXT":"\r\n\u003Cp\u003EОтмена контроля Центробанка над курсом национальной валюты из некого абстрактного явления, обещанного на те времена, \u0026laquo;когда все будет хорошо\u0026raquo;, превращается в реально планируемую меру с названными сроками. Пояснения по этому поводу дал агентству \u0026laquo;Прайм\u0026raquo; первый зампред Банка России Алексей Улюкаев. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E В интервью он заявил, что регулятор принял решение перейти к полному инфляционному таргетированию (контролю) к 2015 г. При этом он откажется от валютного таргетирования, переведя рубль к свободно плавающему курсу. В официальных документах не зафиксировано, на какой год планируется \u0026laquo;освобождение\u0026raquo; российской валюты, однако Алексей Улюкаев сказал, что, по его мнению, это произойдет также в 2015 г. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E Сегодня контроль ЦБ над курсами заключается в установлении валютного коридора, в пределах которого может \u0026laquo;бродить\u0026raquo; рубль. С июля рамки этого коридора составляют 31,65 - 38,65 рублей по бивалютной корзине. Если курс российской денежной единицы приближается к тому или другому краю, Центробанк начинает \u0026laquo;выравнивать\u0026raquo; его, соответственно продавая или покупая валюту. Запуск рубля в \u0026laquo;свободное плавание\u0026raquo; означает отказ от подобных мер и формирование курса исключительно независимыми макроэкономическими факторами. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E Неожиданное откровение зампреда ЦБ вызвало противоречивые оценки банкиров и аналитиков. К 2014 г. российская экономика столкнется с новыми, неизвестными сейчас проблемами, предупреждает директор Центра структурных исследований Института экономической политики Алексей Ведев. Сальдо между экспортом и импортом (ныне положительное) может обнулиться, а это станет (наряду с нефтяными ценами) ключевым фактором формирования свободного курса рубля. Как результат мы получим огромную волатильность курса - до 30 - 40%. А это уже опасно для национальной экономики. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E Подобного мнения придерживается и замдиректора Центра развития НИУ \u0026laquo;Высшая школа экономики\u0026raquo; Валерий Миронов. Даже сейчас, при относительно стабильном макроэкономическом фоне отпущенный на свободу курс рубля мог бы упасть до уровня в 41 рубль за доллар, пугает он. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E Однако высказываются и противоположные мнения, причем не только правительственными чиновниками. Главный экономист УК \u0026laquo;Открытие\u0026raquo; Владимир Тихомиров напомнил, что последние два года валютный рынок живет уже практически при свободном курсе, интервенции ЦБ незначительны. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E Об этом же говорила и главный экономист \u0026laquo;Альфа-банка\u0026raquo; Наталья Орлова в интервью Business FM. В ближайшее время ведущие мировые экономики будут сохранять слабые позиции своих валют, и \u0026laquo;освобождение\u0026raquo; ничем не грозит рублю, добавила она. \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E Начальник аналитического отдела ИК \u0026laquo;Церих Капитал Менеджмент\u0026raquo; Николай Подлевских в свою очередь указал на то, что и при \u0026laquo;свободном плавании\u0026raquo; рубля Банк России сможет в исключительных случаях проводить интервенции: так делают многие крупные центробанки. В долгосрочной перспективе плавающий курс может привести к установлению паритета покупательной способности (что для рубля означает укрепление). \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E В целом, все аналитики сходятся на том, что решающее значение при формировании курса \u0026laquo;свободного\u0026raquo; рубля будут играть цены на нефть. Подобную ситуацию мы наблюдаем и сейчас. А значит, даже если обещания Алексея Улюкаева и сбудутся в срок, это, скорее всего, мало что изменит на российском валютном рынке.Business FM Business FM \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E Источник: \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/bankinform.ru\/\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 \u003Ehttp:\/\/bankinform.ru\/\u003C\/a\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cp\u003E \u003C\/p\u003E\r\n","DETAIL_TEXT_TYPE":"html","~DETAIL_TEXT_TYPE":"html","PREVIEW_TEXT":"","~PREVIEW_TEXT":"","PREVIEW_TEXT_TYPE":"text","~PREVIEW_TEXT_TYPE":"text","DETAIL_PICTURE":{"ID":"279123","TIMESTAMP_X":"31.01.2015 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