PWC: Россия обгонит Германию по экономике в 2042 году

Глобальный финансовый кризис способствовал новой расстановке сил в мировой экономике: согласно последнему исследованию PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) «Мир в 2050 году», экономическое влияние получат быстроразвивающиеся страны. Впрочем, уже в этом году Китай может перегнать США и стать крупнейшей экономической державой в мире.

Оценивая ВВП на основе паритета покупательной силы (ППС), специалисты приходят к выводу, что до 2020 года страны «большой семерки» (Е7), такие как Китай, Индия, Бразилия, Россия, Мексика, Индонезия и Турция, скорее всего, обгонят развитые страны «большой семерки» (G7), куда входят США, Япония, Германия, Великобритания, Франция, Италия и Канада.

Используя в своих прогнозах ВВП по рыночным обменным курсам (РОК), аналитики отмечают, что мировой порядок будет меняться медленнее, но также неуклонно — страны E7 обгонят G7 примерно в 2032 году. В этом же году Китай может перегнать США и стать крупнейшей экономической державой в мире.

Из результатов анализа эксперты PwC также делают вывод о том, что к 2050 году Австралия и Аргентина могут исчезнуть из списка стран «большой двадцатки», а у Вьетнама и Нигерии, наоборот, есть потенциал в него войти. К 2050 году Индонезия может подняться с шестнадцатого места по размеру ВВП, которое она занимала в 2009 году, на восьмое место, обогнав в течение следующих 40 лет не только Италию, но и Францию, Великобританию и Германию.

Также, по прогнозам, наиболее существенный рост доли в мировом ВВП будет приходиться на Индию, а не на Китай. В 2009 году доля Индии в мировом ВВП, определяемом исходя из РОК, составляла лишь 2%. К 2050 году ее доля может вырасти примерно до 13%. Как следует из прогнозов, основанных на оценке ВВП исходя из ППС, Индия может обогнать Японию уже в 2011 году, а также США к 2050 году. «Продвижение Индии в рейтинге ВВП будет гораздо медленнее, если за основу будут взяты рыночные обменные курсы, так как в настоящее время уровень цен в стране намного ниже, чем в развитых странах «большой семерки». Но даже с учетом определения ВВП исходя из РОК, Индия должна будет перегнать Японию к 2030 году, а к 2050 году почти догонит США», — говорится в сообщении PwC.

Специалисты отмечают, что исходя из параметров, используемых в прогнозе, можно сделать вывод о том, что в 2050 году Великобритания с трудом удержится в списке 10 крупнейших экономик, заняв девятое место по ВВП, определенном исходя их рыночных обменных курсов, и десятое место при взятии за основу ВВП, определенного исходя из ППС.

Источник: http://www.rbcdaily.ru/

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Впрочем, уже в этом году Китай может перегнать США и стать крупнейшей экономической державой в мире.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EОценивая ВВП на основе паритета покупательной силы (ППС), специалисты приходят к выводу, что до 2020 года страны \u0026laquo;большой семерки\u0026raquo; (Е7), такие как Китай, Индия, Бразилия, Россия, Мексика, Индонезия и Турция, скорее всего, обгонят развитые страны \u0026laquo;большой семерки\u0026raquo; (G7), куда входят США, Япония, Германия, Великобритания, Франция, Италия и Канада.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EИспользуя в своих прогнозах ВВП по рыночным обменным курсам (РОК), аналитики отмечают, что мировой порядок будет меняться медленнее, но также неуклонно \u0026mdash; страны E7 обгонят G7 примерно в 2032 году. В этом же году Китай может перегнать США и стать крупнейшей экономической державой в мире.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EИз результатов анализа эксперты PwC также делают вывод о том, что к 2050 году Австралия и Аргентина могут исчезнуть из списка стран \u0026laquo;большой двадцатки\u0026raquo;, а у Вьетнама и Нигерии, наоборот, есть потенциал в него войти. К 2050 году Индонезия может подняться с шестнадцатого места по размеру ВВП, которое она занимала в 2009 году, на восьмое место, обогнав в течение следующих 40 лет не только Италию, но и Францию, Великобританию и Германию.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EТакже, по прогнозам, наиболее существенный рост доли в мировом ВВП будет приходиться на Индию, а не на Китай. В 2009 году доля Индии в мировом ВВП, определяемом исходя из РОК, составляла лишь 2%. К 2050 году ее доля может вырасти примерно до 13%. Как следует из прогнозов, основанных на оценке ВВП исходя из ППС, Индия может обогнать Японию уже в 2011 году, а также США к 2050 году. \u0026laquo;Продвижение Индии в рейтинге ВВП будет гораздо медленнее, если за основу будут взяты рыночные обменные курсы, так как в настоящее время уровень цен в стране намного ниже, чем в развитых странах \u0026laquo;большой семерки\u0026raquo;. Но даже с учетом определения ВВП исходя из РОК, Индия должна будет перегнать Японию к 2030 году, а к 2050 году почти догонит США\u0026raquo;, \u0026mdash; говорится в сообщении PwC.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EСпециалисты отмечают, что исходя из параметров, используемых в прогнозе, можно сделать вывод о том, что в 2050 году Великобритания с трудом удержится в списке 10 крупнейших экономик, заняв девятое место по ВВП, определенном исходя их рыночных обменных курсов, и десятое место при взятии за основу ВВП, определенного исходя из ППС.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\r\n \r\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cimg src=\u0022http:\/\/pics.rbcdaily.ru\/rbcdaily_pics\/uniora\/710\/687\/685\/da696e069842d26bd3b51b27ddf95318_640x447.jpg\u0022 border=\u00220\u0022 width=\u0022500\u0022 height=\u0022349\u0022  \/\u003E \r\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \r\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \r\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n Источник: \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.rbcdaily.ru\/2011\/02\/02\/world\/562949979643326\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 \u003Ehttp:\/\/www.rbcdaily.ru\/\u003C\/a\u003E","~DETAIL_TEXT":"\r\n\u003Cdiv align=\u0022justify\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EГлобальный финансовый кризис способствовал новой расстановке сил в мировой экономике: согласно последнему исследованию PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) \u0026laquo;Мир в 2050 году\u0026raquo;, экономическое влияние получат быстроразвивающиеся страны. Впрочем, уже в этом году Китай может перегнать США и стать крупнейшей экономической державой в мире.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EОценивая ВВП на основе паритета покупательной силы (ППС), специалисты приходят к выводу, что до 2020 года страны \u0026laquo;большой семерки\u0026raquo; (Е7), такие как Китай, Индия, Бразилия, Россия, Мексика, Индонезия и Турция, скорее всего, обгонят развитые страны \u0026laquo;большой семерки\u0026raquo; (G7), куда входят США, Япония, Германия, Великобритания, Франция, Италия и Канада.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EИспользуя в своих прогнозах ВВП по рыночным обменным курсам (РОК), аналитики отмечают, что мировой порядок будет меняться медленнее, но также неуклонно \u0026mdash; страны E7 обгонят G7 примерно в 2032 году. В этом же году Китай может перегнать США и стать крупнейшей экономической державой в мире.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EИз результатов анализа эксперты PwC также делают вывод о том, что к 2050 году Австралия и Аргентина могут исчезнуть из списка стран \u0026laquo;большой двадцатки\u0026raquo;, а у Вьетнама и Нигерии, наоборот, есть потенциал в него войти. К 2050 году Индонезия может подняться с шестнадцатого места по размеру ВВП, которое она занимала в 2009 году, на восьмое место, обогнав в течение следующих 40 лет не только Италию, но и Францию, Великобританию и Германию.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EТакже, по прогнозам, наиболее существенный рост доли в мировом ВВП будет приходиться на Индию, а не на Китай. В 2009 году доля Индии в мировом ВВП, определяемом исходя из РОК, составляла лишь 2%. К 2050 году ее доля может вырасти примерно до 13%. Как следует из прогнозов, основанных на оценке ВВП исходя из ППС, Индия может обогнать Японию уже в 2011 году, а также США к 2050 году. \u0026laquo;Продвижение Индии в рейтинге ВВП будет гораздо медленнее, если за основу будут взяты рыночные обменные курсы, так как в настоящее время уровень цен в стране намного ниже, чем в развитых странах \u0026laquo;большой семерки\u0026raquo;. 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