Китай может стать поводом для коррекции в конце недели
Неприятный сюрприз из Китая (14 января Народный Банк Китая в очередной раз повысил норму обязательных резервов для банков на 50 базисных пунктов) привел лишь к локальной коррекции российского рынка в конце прошлой недели. В начале этой недели рост продолжился, и индекс ММВБ вновь обновил максимумы, вплотную приблизившись к важному уровню в 1780 пунктов.
Таким образом, с начала года российский рынок акций вырос примерно на 5%. Формально поводов для роста у нас два – это неплохой старт сезона отчетностей американских корпораций за 4 квартал (на прошедшей неделе прибыль 6 из 7 крупных отчитавшихся компаний превысила ожидания) и продолжающийся приток ликвидности на рынок.
Однако риски по-прежнему остаются. Это, прежде всего, неопределенность в развитии долговой ситуации в периферийных странах ЕС (совещание министров финансов ЕС, начавшаяся вчера, вряд ли принесет какие-либо существенные результаты) и риск повышения процентных ставок Китаем. Причем, если европейские проблемы, вероятно, временно отступили, неприятных новостей из Китая можно будет ждать уже в конце этой недели. В четверг (перед началом торгов на российских площадках) будет опубликован широкий блок данных по китайской экономике (наиболее значимыми будут данные по инфляции) за декабрь. Если публикуемые цифры вновь укажут на ускорение инфляции, это может стать спровоцировать очередное повышение процентных ставок Народным Банком Китая и вылиться в коррекцию на сырьевых площадках.
Кроме того, обострение отношений Китая и Штатов (сегодня начался визит председателя КНР в США) может негативно отразится на настрое инвесторов.
Также поводом для локальной коррекции вновь могут стать стат. данные из Штатов (на этой неделе будут опубликованы цифры по американскому рынку жилья).
Продолжающийся сезон отчетностей американских корпораций за 4 квартал ожидается достаточно сильным, поэтому с этой стороны рынок продолжит получать поддержку. Однако исключать неприятных сюрпризов от американских корпораций (как, например, сегодняшняя отчетность Citigroup, по прибыли оказавшаяся практически в 2 раза хуже ожиданий), на наш взгляд, нельзя.
На текущий момент индекс ММВБ торгуется вблизи отметки 1760 пунктов, ближайшим уровнем поддержки выступает диапазон 1740-1750 пунктов, ближайшие уровни сопротивления – 1770 -1780 пунктов.
Вероятность закрытия «новогоднего гэпа» (1700 пунктов по ММВБ) мы считаем маловероятной в ближайшее время.
Ольга Митрофанова, аналитик УК «Райффайзен Капитал»
Таким образом, с начала года российский рынок акций вырос примерно на 5%. Формально поводов для роста у нас два – это неплохой старт сезона отчетностей американских корпораций за 4 квартал (на прошедшей неделе прибыль 6 из 7 крупных отчитавшихся компаний превысила ожидания) и продолжающийся приток ликвидности на рынок.
Однако риски по-прежнему остаются. Это, прежде всего, неопределенность в развитии долговой ситуации в периферийных странах ЕС (совещание министров финансов ЕС, начавшаяся вчера, вряд ли принесет какие-либо существенные результаты) и риск повышения процентных ставок Китаем. Причем, если европейские проблемы, вероятно, временно отступили, неприятных новостей из Китая можно будет ждать уже в конце этой недели. В четверг (перед началом торгов на российских площадках) будет опубликован широкий блок данных по китайской экономике (наиболее значимыми будут данные по инфляции) за декабрь. Если публикуемые цифры вновь укажут на ускорение инфляции, это может стать спровоцировать очередное повышение процентных ставок Народным Банком Китая и вылиться в коррекцию на сырьевых площадках.
Кроме того, обострение отношений Китая и Штатов (сегодня начался визит председателя КНР в США) может негативно отразится на настрое инвесторов.
Также поводом для локальной коррекции вновь могут стать стат. данные из Штатов (на этой неделе будут опубликованы цифры по американскому рынку жилья).
Продолжающийся сезон отчетностей американских корпораций за 4 квартал ожидается достаточно сильным, поэтому с этой стороны рынок продолжит получать поддержку. Однако исключать неприятных сюрпризов от американских корпораций (как, например, сегодняшняя отчетность Citigroup, по прибыли оказавшаяся практически в 2 раза хуже ожиданий), на наш взгляд, нельзя.
На текущий момент индекс ММВБ торгуется вблизи отметки 1760 пунктов, ближайшим уровнем поддержки выступает диапазон 1740-1750 пунктов, ближайшие уровни сопротивления – 1770 -1780 пунктов.
Вероятность закрытия «новогоднего гэпа» (1700 пунктов по ММВБ) мы считаем маловероятной в ближайшее время.
Ольга Митрофанова, аналитик УК «Райффайзен Капитал»
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Формально поводов для роста у нас два \u0026ndash; это неплохой старт сезона отчетностей американских корпораций за 4 квартал (на прошедшей неделе прибыль 6 из 7 крупных отчитавшихся компаний превысила ожидания) и продолжающийся приток ликвидности на рынок.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EОднако риски по-прежнему остаются. Это, прежде всего, неопределенность в развитии долговой ситуации в периферийных странах ЕС (совещание министров финансов ЕС, начавшаяся вчера, вряд ли принесет какие-либо существенные результаты) и риск повышения процентных ставок Китаем. Причем, если европейские проблемы, вероятно, временно отступили, неприятных новостей из Китая можно будет ждать уже в конце этой недели. В четверг (перед началом торгов на российских площадках) будет опубликован широкий блок данных по китайской экономике (наиболее значимыми будут данные по инфляции) за декабрь. Если публикуемые цифры вновь укажут на ускорение инфляции, это может стать спровоцировать очередное повышение процентных ставок Народным Банком Китая и вылиться в коррекцию на сырьевых площадках.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EКроме того, обострение отношений Китая и Штатов (сегодня начался визит председателя КНР в США) может негативно отразится на настрое инвесторов.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EТакже поводом для локальной коррекции вновь могут стать стат. данные из Штатов (на этой неделе будут опубликованы цифры по американскому рынку жилья).\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EПродолжающийся сезон отчетностей американских корпораций за 4 квартал ожидается достаточно сильным, поэтому с этой стороны рынок продолжит получать поддержку. Однако исключать неприятных сюрпризов от американских корпораций (как, например, сегодняшняя отчетность Citigroup, по прибыли оказавшаяся практически в 2 раза хуже ожиданий), на наш взгляд, нельзя.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EНа текущий момент индекс ММВБ торгуется вблизи отметки 1760 пунктов, ближайшим уровнем поддержки выступает диапазон 1740-1750 пунктов, ближайшие уровни сопротивления \u0026ndash; 1770 -1780 пунктов.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EВероятность закрытия \u0026laquo;новогоднего гэпа\u0026raquo; (1700 пунктов по ММВБ) мы считаем маловероятной в ближайшее время.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EОльга Митрофанова, аналитик УК \u0026laquo;Райффайзен Капитал\u0026raquo;\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\r\n","~DETAIL_TEXT":"\r\n\u003Cdiv align=\u0022justify\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EНеприятный сюрприз из Китая (14 января Народный Банк Китая в очередной раз повысил норму обязательных резервов для банков на 50 базисных пунктов) привел лишь к локальной коррекции российского рынка в конце прошлой недели. В начале этой недели рост продолжился, и индекс ММВБ вновь обновил максимумы, вплотную приблизившись к важному уровню в 1780 пунктов.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EТаким образом, с начала года российский рынок акций вырос примерно на 5%. Формально поводов для роста у нас два \u0026ndash; это неплохой старт сезона отчетностей американских корпораций за 4 квартал (на прошедшей неделе прибыль 6 из 7 крупных отчитавшихся компаний превысила ожидания) и продолжающийся приток ликвидности на рынок.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EОднако риски по-прежнему остаются. Это, прежде всего, неопределенность в развитии долговой ситуации в периферийных странах ЕС (совещание министров финансов ЕС, начавшаяся вчера, вряд ли принесет какие-либо существенные результаты) и риск повышения процентных ставок Китаем. Причем, если европейские проблемы, вероятно, временно отступили, неприятных новостей из Китая можно будет ждать уже в конце этой недели. В четверг (перед началом торгов на российских площадках) будет опубликован широкий блок данных по китайской экономике (наиболее значимыми будут данные по инфляции) за декабрь. Если публикуемые цифры вновь укажут на ускорение инфляции, это может стать спровоцировать очередное повышение процентных ставок Народным Банком Китая и вылиться в коррекцию на сырьевых площадках.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EКроме того, обострение отношений Китая и Штатов (сегодня начался визит председателя КНР в США) может негативно отразится на настрое инвесторов.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EТакже поводом для локальной коррекции вновь могут стать стат. данные из Штатов (на этой неделе будут опубликованы цифры по американскому рынку жилья).\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EПродолжающийся сезон отчетностей американских корпораций за 4 квартал ожидается достаточно сильным, поэтому с этой стороны рынок продолжит получать поддержку. Однако исключать неприятных сюрпризов от американских корпораций (как, например, сегодняшняя отчетность Citigroup, по прибыли оказавшаяся практически в 2 раза хуже ожиданий), на наш взгляд, нельзя.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EНа текущий момент индекс ММВБ торгуется вблизи отметки 1760 пунктов, ближайшим уровнем поддержки выступает диапазон 1740-1750 пунктов, ближайшие уровни сопротивления \u0026ndash; 1770 -1780 пунктов.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EВероятность закрытия \u0026laquo;новогоднего гэпа\u0026raquo; (1700 пунктов по ММВБ) мы считаем маловероятной в ближайшее время.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EОльга Митрофанова, аналитик УК \u0026laquo;Райффайзен 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Новости по этой теме
