Ожидания второго этапа количественного смягчения оказывают мощную поддержку рынку

{"ID":"401654","~ID":"401654","TAGS":"российский рынок акций, рост","~TAGS":"российский рынок акций, рост","NAME":"Ожидания второго этапа количественного смягчения оказывают мощную поддержку рынку","~NAME":"Ожидания второго этапа количественного смягчения оказывают мощную поддержку рынку","IBLOCK_ID":"54","~IBLOCK_ID":"54","IBLOCK_SECTION_ID":"5170","~IBLOCK_SECTION_ID":"5170","DETAIL_TEXT":"\r\n\u003Cdiv align=\u0022justify\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EПосле незначительной коррекции во вторник, российский рынок акций вновь начал расти. Ключевым поводом для восстановления позитивных тенденций стала публикация протоколов заседания ФРС от 21 сентября (во вторник, после закрытия российских торгов), которые указали на высокую готовность американского регулятора начать второй этап количественного смягчения уже в ближайшее время (большинство инвесторов закладывается на то, что новые меры будут объявлены на очередном заседании ФРС 2-3 ноября). Открытым остается только вопрос относительно объемов новой программы (ожидания в среднем укладываются в диапазон 500 млрд. долл. на заседании 2-3 ноября, и до 1,5 трлн. долл. всего). Кроме того, не исключено, что ФРС может прибегнуть к таргетированию инфляции и ВВП, что также должно позитивно отразиться на состоянии американской экономики. Эти новости вновь привели к ослаблению доллара против евро (на текущий момент пара евро\/доллар смогла закрепиться выше отметки 1,4) и очередному ралли на сырьевых площадках. \u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EПомимо этого позитивные настроения на рынке поддерживаются неплохим стартом отчетностей американских корпораций за 3 квартал 2010 года. На текущий момент из крупных компаний отчитались Alcoa, Intel и JP Morgan Chase \u0026ndash; все они смогли превысить ожидания рынка на уровне чистой прибыли на акцию (EPS) и дали достаточно оптимистичные прогнозы на следующий квартал. На этой неделе нас еще ждут отчетности таких крупных американских компаний как Google и General Electric. На следующей неделе будут опубликованы отчеты ряда американских финансовых компаний.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EЧто же касается рынка нефти, то здесь помимо валютного фактора неплохую поддержку ценам оказывают сильные данные по запасам нефти и нефтепродуктов от API (согласно им запасы нефти сократились более чем на 4 млн. баррелей, запасы бензина упали более чем на 1,8 млн. баррелей). В результате на текущий момент нефть марки Brent уверенно торгуется выше отметки 85 долл. за баррель. Помимо валютного фактора, на дальнейшую динамику цен на нефть могут оказать влияние сегодняшняя публикация запасов нефти и нефтепродуктов от EIA и итоги заседания ОПЕК (встреча началась сегодня в Вене). \u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EСегодня в течение торговой сессии индекс ММВБ торгуется вблизи отметки 1500 пунктов, однако для дальнейшего уверенного роста пока, на наш взгляд, не хватает поводов. Но на сильной нефти и слабом долларе фиксировать прибыль игроки тоже не торопятся, поэтому ждать коррекции, по-видимому, не стоит.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EМы полагаем, что на этой неделе российский рынок сможет закрепиться на достигнутых уровнях (около 1500 пунктов по индексу ММВБ). Дальнейшая динамика российского рынка будет зависеть от двух ключевых факторов \u0026ndash; валютного и сырьевого.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EВ случае позитивного развития события (например, выйдут хорошие отчетности по американским банкам) у индекса ММВБ, на наш взгляд, есть все шансы протестировать уровни 1530-1540 пунктов \u0026ndash; максимумы апреля 2010 года.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EОднако, несмотря на достаточно позитивный настрой инвесторов, мы полагаем, что рассчитывать на безостановочный рост мировых и российского индексов до полного прояснения ситуации с началом второго этапа количественного смягчения в Штатах не стоит. \u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EНа текущий момент ключевой идеей роста являются ожидания нового этапа стимулирования американской экономики, а значит, любые заявления представителей ФРС могут моментально изменять настроения игроков на прямо противоположные (и эта неделя наглядное тому подтверждение).\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EМы придерживаемся мнения, что устойчивый тренд на рынке установится уже после заседания ФРС (2-3 ноября). К этому времени также отчитается большинство американских компаний (за 3 квартал), что также поможет игрокам сформировать мнение относительно дальнейших перспектив восстановления мировой экономики.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EОльга Митрофанова, аналитик УК \u0026laquo;Райффайзен Капитал\u0026raquo;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\r\n","~DETAIL_TEXT":"\r\n\u003Cdiv align=\u0022justify\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EПосле незначительной коррекции во вторник, российский рынок акций вновь начал расти. Ключевым поводом для восстановления позитивных тенденций стала публикация протоколов заседания ФРС от 21 сентября (во вторник, после закрытия российских торгов), которые указали на высокую готовность американского регулятора начать второй этап количественного смягчения уже в ближайшее время (большинство инвесторов закладывается на то, что новые меры будут объявлены на очередном заседании ФРС 2-3 ноября). Открытым остается только вопрос относительно объемов новой программы (ожидания в среднем укладываются в диапазон 500 млрд. долл. на заседании 2-3 ноября, и до 1,5 трлн. долл. всего). Кроме того, не исключено, что ФРС может прибегнуть к таргетированию инфляции и ВВП, что также должно позитивно отразиться на состоянии американской экономики. Эти новости вновь привели к ослаблению доллара против евро (на текущий момент пара евро\/доллар смогла закрепиться выше отметки 1,4) и очередному ралли на сырьевых площадках. \u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EПомимо этого позитивные настроения на рынке поддерживаются неплохим стартом отчетностей американских корпораций за 3 квартал 2010 года. На текущий момент из крупных компаний отчитались Alcoa, Intel и JP Morgan Chase \u0026ndash; все они смогли превысить ожидания рынка на уровне чистой прибыли на акцию (EPS) и дали достаточно оптимистичные прогнозы на следующий квартал. На этой неделе нас еще ждут отчетности таких крупных американских компаний как Google и General Electric. На следующей неделе будут опубликованы отчеты ряда американских финансовых компаний.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EЧто же касается рынка нефти, то здесь помимо валютного фактора неплохую поддержку ценам оказывают сильные данные по запасам нефти и нефтепродуктов от API (согласно им запасы нефти сократились более чем на 4 млн. баррелей, запасы бензина упали более чем на 1,8 млн. баррелей). В результате на текущий момент нефть марки Brent уверенно торгуется выше отметки 85 долл. за баррель. Помимо валютного фактора, на дальнейшую динамику цен на нефть могут оказать влияние сегодняшняя публикация запасов нефти и нефтепродуктов от EIA и итоги заседания ОПЕК (встреча началась сегодня в Вене). \u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EСегодня в течение торговой сессии индекс ММВБ торгуется вблизи отметки 1500 пунктов, однако для дальнейшего уверенного роста пока, на наш взгляд, не хватает поводов. Но на сильной нефти и слабом долларе фиксировать прибыль игроки тоже не торопятся, поэтому ждать коррекции, по-видимому, не стоит.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EМы полагаем, что на этой неделе российский рынок сможет закрепиться на достигнутых уровнях (около 1500 пунктов по индексу ММВБ). Дальнейшая динамика российского рынка будет зависеть от двух ключевых факторов \u0026ndash; валютного и сырьевого.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EВ случае позитивного развития события (например, выйдут хорошие отчетности по американским банкам) у индекса ММВБ, на наш взгляд, есть все шансы протестировать уровни 1530-1540 пунктов \u0026ndash; максимумы апреля 2010 года.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EОднако, несмотря на достаточно позитивный настрой инвесторов, мы полагаем, что рассчитывать на безостановочный рост мировых и российского индексов до полного прояснения ситуации с началом второго этапа количественного смягчения в Штатах не стоит. \u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EНа текущий момент ключевой идеей роста являются ожидания нового этапа стимулирования американской экономики, а значит, любые заявления представителей ФРС могут моментально изменять настроения игроков на прямо противоположные (и эта неделя наглядное тому подтверждение).\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EМы придерживаемся мнения, что устойчивый тренд на рынке установится уже после заседания ФРС (2-3 ноября). К этому времени также отчитается большинство американских компаний (за 3 квартал), что также поможет игрокам сформировать мнение относительно дальнейших перспектив восстановления мировой экономики.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EОльга Митрофанова, аналитик УК \u0026laquo;Райффайзен Капитал\u0026raquo;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\r\n","DETAIL_TEXT_TYPE":"html","~DETAIL_TEXT_TYPE":"html","PREVIEW_TEXT":"","~PREVIEW_TEXT":"","PREVIEW_TEXT_TYPE":"text","~PREVIEW_TEXT_TYPE":"text","DETAIL_PICTURE":{"ID":"186561","TIMESTAMP_X":"29.01.2015 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