Статистика из Штатов все больше настораживает

{"ID":"393728","~ID":"393728","TAGS":"фондовый рынок, ммвб, банки, ввп, сша","~TAGS":"фондовый рынок, ммвб, банки, ввп, сша","NAME":"Статистика из Штатов все больше настораживает","~NAME":"Статистика из Штатов все больше настораживает","IBLOCK_ID":"54","~IBLOCK_ID":"54","IBLOCK_SECTION_ID":"5170","~IBLOCK_SECTION_ID":"5170","DETAIL_TEXT":"\r\n\u003Cdiv align=\u0022justify\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EВ целом уходящая неделя стала нейтральной для российского фондового рынка. Позитив начала недели, обусловленный достаточно сильными результатами стресс-тестов европейских банков, был быстро нивелирован очередной порцией слабых макроэкономических данных из Штатов (по потребительскому доверию, по заказам на товары длительного пользования), что вновь обострило опасения замедление темпов восстановления американской экономики. Не добавили оптимизма финансовым рынкам и слабые недельные данные по запасам нефти и нефтепродуктов (по данным Министерства энергетики США, запасы недели за прошедшую неделю выросли на 7,31 млн. баррелей, в то время как ожидалось сокращение на 1,73 млн. баррелей). Дополнительным поводом для беспокойства стала опубликованная в среду \u0026laquo;Бежевая книга\u0026raquo; ФРС, которая еще раз подтвердила факт замедление американской активности в отдельных районах и отраслях.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EКорпоративные отчетности, опубликованные на этой неделе, оказались не настолько хорошими, чтобы стать достаточным фактором поддержки для рынка (например, хуже ожиданий отчиталaсь US Steel, а Boeing представил достаточно негативный прогноз на следующий квартал). В результате большую часть недели индекс ММВБ находился вблизи отметки 1400 пунктов, практически не изменившись за первые четыре дня торгов. Похожую динамику продемонстрировали и западные площадки.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EТаким образом, пока ни у зарубежных, ни у российских инвесторов нет четких сигналов для дальнейшей игры на повышение, поэтому они предпочитают постепенно фиксировать прибыль. Возможно, уже скоро рынки получат такой сигнал. Им может стать публикация данных по ВВП США за 2 квартал 2010 года (будут опубликованы в пятницу, 30 июля в 16-30 по мск). При этом, на наш взгляд, для инвесторов будет скорее важны не фактические результаты, а комментарии к ним.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EМы не исключаем, что если слабые данные по ВВП (ожидается замедление роста до 2,5% против 2,7% по итогам 1 квартала 2010 года) за 2 квартал будут сопровождаться комментариями о не сворачивании антикризисных мер или же о расширении политики количественного смягчения, это может вернуть игрокам уверенность в том, что избыточная ликвидность не уйдет с рынка в ближайшее время.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EА это значит, что можно будет продолжать игру на повышение, несмотря на выходящие слабые статданные из Штатов. В этом случае, вполне вероятно, что индекс ММВБ сможет закрепиться выше отметки 1400 пунктов.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EЕсли же инвесторы решат выбрать стратегию фиксации прибыли, то индекс ММВБ может вновь уйти вниз до уровней 1360-1370 пунктов.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EНа текущий момент рынок скорее настроен на продолжение роста, поэтому сценарий закрепления выше отметки 1400 пунктов по индексу ММВБ кажется нам более вероятным. Тем не менее, мы рекомендуем инвесторам занять выжидательную позицию до публикации данных по ВВП США за 2 квартал.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EОльга Митрофанова, аналитик УК \u0026laquo;Райффайзен Капитал\u0026raquo;\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\r\n","~DETAIL_TEXT":"\r\n\u003Cdiv align=\u0022justify\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EВ целом уходящая неделя стала нейтральной для российского фондового рынка. Позитив начала недели, обусловленный достаточно сильными результатами стресс-тестов европейских банков, был быстро нивелирован очередной порцией слабых макроэкономических данных из Штатов (по потребительскому доверию, по заказам на товары длительного пользования), что вновь обострило опасения замедление темпов восстановления американской экономики. Не добавили оптимизма финансовым рынкам и слабые недельные данные по запасам нефти и нефтепродуктов (по данным Министерства энергетики США, запасы недели за прошедшую неделю выросли на 7,31 млн. баррелей, в то время как ожидалось сокращение на 1,73 млн. баррелей). Дополнительным поводом для беспокойства стала опубликованная в среду \u0026laquo;Бежевая книга\u0026raquo; ФРС, которая еще раз подтвердила факт замедление американской активности в отдельных районах и отраслях.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EКорпоративные отчетности, опубликованные на этой неделе, оказались не настолько хорошими, чтобы стать достаточным фактором поддержки для рынка (например, хуже ожиданий отчиталaсь US Steel, а Boeing представил достаточно негативный прогноз на следующий квартал). В результате большую часть недели индекс ММВБ находился вблизи отметки 1400 пунктов, практически не изменившись за первые четыре дня торгов. Похожую динамику продемонстрировали и западные площадки.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EТаким образом, пока ни у зарубежных, ни у российских инвесторов нет четких сигналов для дальнейшей игры на повышение, поэтому они предпочитают постепенно фиксировать прибыль. Возможно, уже скоро рынки получат такой сигнал. Им может стать публикация данных по ВВП США за 2 квартал 2010 года (будут опубликованы в пятницу, 30 июля в 16-30 по мск). При этом, на наш взгляд, для инвесторов будет скорее важны не фактические результаты, а комментарии к ним.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EМы не исключаем, что если слабые данные по ВВП (ожидается замедление роста до 2,5% против 2,7% по итогам 1 квартала 2010 года) за 2 квартал будут сопровождаться комментариями о не сворачивании антикризисных мер или же о расширении политики количественного смягчения, это может вернуть игрокам уверенность в том, что избыточная ликвидность не уйдет с рынка в ближайшее время.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EА это значит, что можно будет продолжать игру на повышение, несмотря на выходящие слабые статданные из Штатов. В этом случае, вполне вероятно, что индекс ММВБ сможет закрепиться выше отметки 1400 пунктов.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EЕсли же инвесторы решат выбрать стратегию фиксации прибыли, то индекс ММВБ может вновь уйти вниз до уровней 1360-1370 пунктов.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EНа текущий момент рынок скорее настроен на продолжение роста, поэтому сценарий закрепления выше отметки 1400 пунктов по индексу ММВБ кажется нам более вероятным. Тем не менее, мы рекомендуем инвесторам занять выжидательную позицию до публикации данных по ВВП США за 2 квартал.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EОльга Митрофанова, аналитик УК \u0026laquo;Райффайзен Капитал\u0026raquo;\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\r\n","DETAIL_TEXT_TYPE":"html","~DETAIL_TEXT_TYPE":"html","PREVIEW_TEXT":"","~PREVIEW_TEXT":"","PREVIEW_TEXT_TYPE":"text","~PREVIEW_TEXT_TYPE":"text","DETAIL_PICTURE":{"ID":"179691","TIMESTAMP_X":"29.01.2015 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