Курс доллара на конец 2009 года составит 30 руб.
Согласно данным аналитического исследования, проведенного инвестиционной компаний «ФИНАМ», стоимость доллара по итогам 2009 года составит 30 рублей, а соотношение евро/доллар – 1,45. По оценкам аналитиков инвестиционной компании, основное давление на курс доллара оказывают инфляционные риски в американской экономике, рекордный дефицит бюджета США, а также сокращение спроса инвесторов на защитные инструменты на фоне нормализации экономической конъюнктуры.
Аналитиками инвестиционной компании были пересмотрены прогнозы курса рубля по отношению к доллару и стоимость бивалютной корзины с учетом цены на нефть в рамках трех основных сценариев: оптимистичного, базового и пессимистичного. «В оптимистичном сценарии мы приняли во внимание планы ЦБ в случае роста цен на нефть ограничивать дальнейшее укрепление рубля с целью сохранения конкурентоспособности российской продукции и для возможности эффективного финансирования бюджетного дефицита за счёт резервных фондов, номинированных в валюте», - отмечает аналитик инвестиционной компании Константин Романов. Согласно данной модели, на конец года прогнозная величина курса доллара составит 29 рублей, а стоимость бивалютной корзины – 35,1 рубля при цене нефти марки Brent $85 за баррель.
В базовом сценарии цена нефти марки Brent на конец года составит $70 за баррель. «На конец года мы снизили курс доллара в базовом сценарии с 31,8 рублей до 30,0 рублей. Таким образом, мы не ожидаем дальнейшего укрепления рубля до конца года вследствие необходимости финансирования бюджетного дефицита, несмотря на стабильный приток валюты за счёт относительно высоких цен на нефть», - полагают аналитики. Пессимистичный сценарий предусматривает значение курса доллара, равное 32 рублям, стоимость бивалютной корзины – 38,2 рубля. При этом цена нефти марки Brent будет равна $55 за баррель.
Соотношение евро/доллар по итогам 2009 года, по прогнозам аналитиков инвестиционной компании, достигнет уровня 1,45. «Американская экономика будет подвержена наибольшему риску инфляции, поскольку именно ФРС США максимально агрессивно использовала денежные инструменты для стимуляции экономического роста», - отмечает Константин Романов. Он также выделяет в числе угроз для доллара рекордный дефицит бюджета США ($1,5 трлн), который в настоящий момент финансируется другими странами посредством продажи им гособлигаций.
Дополнительным риском для курса американского доллара аналитики называют снижение спроса инвесторов на защитные инструменты в условиях нормализации экономической конъюнктуры. «Избыточное предложение долларов в сочетании с ограниченным спросом на новые выпуски американских гособлигаций будет стимулировать плавную девальвацию доллара», - говорится в исследовании инвестиционной компании.
Аналитиками инвестиционной компании были пересмотрены прогнозы курса рубля по отношению к доллару и стоимость бивалютной корзины с учетом цены на нефть в рамках трех основных сценариев: оптимистичного, базового и пессимистичного. «В оптимистичном сценарии мы приняли во внимание планы ЦБ в случае роста цен на нефть ограничивать дальнейшее укрепление рубля с целью сохранения конкурентоспособности российской продукции и для возможности эффективного финансирования бюджетного дефицита за счёт резервных фондов, номинированных в валюте», - отмечает аналитик инвестиционной компании Константин Романов. Согласно данной модели, на конец года прогнозная величина курса доллара составит 29 рублей, а стоимость бивалютной корзины – 35,1 рубля при цене нефти марки Brent $85 за баррель.
В базовом сценарии цена нефти марки Brent на конец года составит $70 за баррель. «На конец года мы снизили курс доллара в базовом сценарии с 31,8 рублей до 30,0 рублей. Таким образом, мы не ожидаем дальнейшего укрепления рубля до конца года вследствие необходимости финансирования бюджетного дефицита, несмотря на стабильный приток валюты за счёт относительно высоких цен на нефть», - полагают аналитики. Пессимистичный сценарий предусматривает значение курса доллара, равное 32 рублям, стоимость бивалютной корзины – 38,2 рубля. При этом цена нефти марки Brent будет равна $55 за баррель.
Соотношение евро/доллар по итогам 2009 года, по прогнозам аналитиков инвестиционной компании, достигнет уровня 1,45. «Американская экономика будет подвержена наибольшему риску инфляции, поскольку именно ФРС США максимально агрессивно использовала денежные инструменты для стимуляции экономического роста», - отмечает Константин Романов. Он также выделяет в числе угроз для доллара рекордный дефицит бюджета США ($1,5 трлн), который в настоящий момент финансируется другими странами посредством продажи им гособлигаций.
Дополнительным риском для курса американского доллара аналитики называют снижение спроса инвесторов на защитные инструменты в условиях нормализации экономической конъюнктуры. «Избыточное предложение долларов в сочетании с ограниченным спросом на новые выпуски американских гособлигаций будет стимулировать плавную девальвацию доллара», - говорится в исследовании инвестиционной компании.
{"ID":"358498","~ID":"358498","TAGS":"доллар, евро, нефть, курс, финам, прогноз","~TAGS":"доллар, евро, нефть, курс, финам, прогноз","NAME":"Курс доллара на конец 2009 года составит 30 руб.","~NAME":"Курс доллара на конец 2009 года составит 30 руб.","IBLOCK_ID":"54","~IBLOCK_ID":"54","IBLOCK_SECTION_ID":"4067","~IBLOCK_SECTION_ID":"4067","DETAIL_TEXT":"\r\n\u003Cdiv align=\u0022justify\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EСогласно данным аналитического исследования, проведенного инвестиционной компаний \u0026laquo;ФИНАМ\u0026raquo;, стоимость доллара по итогам 2009 года составит 30 рублей, а соотношение евро\/доллар \u0026ndash; 1,45. По оценкам аналитиков инвестиционной компании, основное давление на курс доллара оказывают инфляционные риски в американской экономике, рекордный дефицит бюджета США, а также сокращение спроса инвесторов на защитные инструменты на фоне нормализации экономической конъюнктуры.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EАналитиками инвестиционной компании были пересмотрены прогнозы курса рубля по отношению к доллару и стоимость бивалютной корзины с учетом цены на нефть в рамках трех основных сценариев: оптимистичного, базового и пессимистичного. \u0026laquo;В оптимистичном сценарии мы приняли во внимание планы ЦБ в случае роста цен на нефть ограничивать дальнейшее укрепление рубля с целью сохранения конкурентоспособности российской продукции и для возможности эффективного финансирования бюджетного дефицита за счёт резервных фондов, номинированных в валюте\u0026raquo;, - отмечает аналитик инвестиционной компании Константин Романов. Согласно данной модели, на конец года прогнозная величина курса доллара составит 29 рублей, а стоимость бивалютной корзины \u0026ndash; 35,1 рубля при цене нефти марки Brent \u0026#36;85 за баррель.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EВ базовом сценарии цена нефти марки Brent на конец года составит \u0026#36;70 за баррель. \u0026laquo;На конец года мы снизили курс доллара в базовом сценарии с 31,8 рублей до 30,0 рублей. Таким образом, мы не ожидаем дальнейшего укрепления рубля до конца года вследствие необходимости финансирования бюджетного дефицита, несмотря на стабильный приток валюты за счёт относительно высоких цен на нефть\u0026raquo;, - полагают аналитики. Пессимистичный сценарий предусматривает значение курса доллара, равное 32 рублям, стоимость бивалютной корзины \u0026ndash; 38,2 рубля. При этом цена нефти марки Brent будет равна \u0026#36;55 за баррель.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EСоотношение евро\/доллар по итогам 2009 года, по прогнозам аналитиков инвестиционной компании, достигнет уровня 1,45. \u0026laquo;Американская экономика будет подвержена наибольшему риску инфляции, поскольку именно ФРС США максимально агрессивно использовала денежные инструменты для стимуляции экономического роста\u0026raquo;, - отмечает Константин Романов. Он также выделяет в числе угроз для доллара рекордный дефицит бюджета США (\u0026#36;1,5 трлн), который в настоящий момент финансируется другими странами посредством продажи им гособлигаций.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EДополнительным риском для курса американского доллара аналитики называют снижение спроса инвесторов на защитные инструменты в условиях нормализации экономической конъюнктуры. \u0026laquo;Избыточное предложение долларов в сочетании с ограниченным спросом на новые выпуски американских гособлигаций будет стимулировать плавную девальвацию доллара\u0026raquo;, - говорится в исследовании инвестиционной компании.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\r\n ","~DETAIL_TEXT":"\r\n\u003Cdiv align=\u0022justify\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EСогласно данным аналитического исследования, проведенного инвестиционной компаний \u0026laquo;ФИНАМ\u0026raquo;, стоимость доллара по итогам 2009 года составит 30 рублей, а соотношение евро\/доллар \u0026ndash; 1,45. По оценкам аналитиков инвестиционной компании, основное давление на курс доллара оказывают инфляционные риски в американской экономике, рекордный дефицит бюджета США, а также сокращение спроса инвесторов на защитные инструменты на фоне нормализации экономической конъюнктуры.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EАналитиками инвестиционной компании были пересмотрены прогнозы курса рубля по отношению к доллару и стоимость бивалютной корзины с учетом цены на нефть в рамках трех основных сценариев: оптимистичного, базового и пессимистичного. \u0026laquo;В оптимистичном сценарии мы приняли во внимание планы ЦБ в случае роста цен на нефть ограничивать дальнейшее укрепление рубля с целью сохранения конкурентоспособности российской продукции и для возможности эффективного финансирования бюджетного дефицита за счёт резервных фондов, номинированных в валюте\u0026raquo;, - отмечает аналитик инвестиционной компании Константин Романов. Согласно данной модели, на конец года прогнозная величина курса доллара составит 29 рублей, а стоимость бивалютной корзины \u0026ndash; 35,1 рубля при цене нефти марки Brent \u0026#36;85 за баррель.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EВ базовом сценарии цена нефти марки Brent на конец года составит \u0026#36;70 за баррель. \u0026laquo;На конец года мы снизили курс доллара в базовом сценарии с 31,8 рублей до 30,0 рублей. Таким образом, мы не ожидаем дальнейшего укрепления рубля до конца года вследствие необходимости финансирования бюджетного дефицита, несмотря на стабильный приток валюты за счёт относительно высоких цен на нефть\u0026raquo;, - полагают аналитики. Пессимистичный сценарий предусматривает значение курса доллара, равное 32 рублям, стоимость бивалютной корзины \u0026ndash; 38,2 рубля. При этом цена нефти марки Brent будет равна \u0026#36;55 за баррель.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EСоотношение евро\/доллар по итогам 2009 года, по прогнозам аналитиков инвестиционной компании, достигнет уровня 1,45. \u0026laquo;Американская экономика будет подвержена наибольшему риску инфляции, поскольку именно ФРС США максимально агрессивно использовала денежные инструменты для стимуляции экономического роста\u0026raquo;, - отмечает Константин Романов. 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Новости по этой теме
