Эксперты почти не сомневаются, что 2010 год будет «кризисным»

{"ID":"350814","~ID":"350814","TAGS":"финансовый кризис, экономика, россия, выход из кризиса, ФИНАМ, конференция","~TAGS":"финансовый кризис, экономика, россия, выход из кризиса, ФИНАМ, конференция","NAME":"Эксперты почти не сомневаются, что 2010 год  будет «кризисным»","~NAME":"Эксперты почти не сомневаются, что 2010 год  будет «кризисным»","IBLOCK_ID":"54","~IBLOCK_ID":"54","IBLOCK_SECTION_ID":"829","~IBLOCK_SECTION_ID":"829","DETAIL_TEXT":"\r\n\u003Cdiv align=\u0022justify\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EУчастники интернет-конференции, организованной инвестиционным холдингом \u0026laquo;ФИНАМ\u0026raquo;, сошлись во мнении, что возобновление российской экономики начнется только через 1-1,5 года после стабилизации ведущих мировых экономик. При этом окончание кризисного этапа в последних предрекают уже в конце 2009. Часть экспертов, среди которых и директор Института проблем глобализации Михаил Делягин, полагают, что Россия еще столкнется с новой волной негативных тенденций, в частности, существенной девальвацией рубля в обозримом будущем.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u0026laquo;Думаю, что 2010 год тоже будет кризисным. И это будет, в общем-то, удивительно, потому что мировая экономика будет потихоньку восстанавливаться. Но в том-то и дело, что мы со своим ручным управлением настолько деформируем и без того далеко не идеальную российскую рыночную экономику, что она станет не очень восприимчивой даже к позитивным сигналам извне. Не жду активного восстановления экономики и в 2011 году. А вот 2012 год вполне может стать первым годом реального восстановления. В любом случае, до уровня 2008 года российская экономика раньше 2013 года не восстановится\u0026raquo;, - полагает директор департамента стратегического анализа компании ФБК Игорь Николаев.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EГруппа экспертов, включающая профессора Российской экономической школы Наталью Волчкову, полагает, что слишком легкий выход из кризиса может оказать дурную услугу российской экономике. \u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u0026laquo;Пока не было громких банкротств. И это не потому, что российские предприятия и банки очень эффективны и могут успешно работать и в условиях кризиса. Это и потому, что пока их спасают государственные вливания, и потому, что законодательство не очень эффективное, и неопределенность будущего велика. Но, с точки зрения завершения кризиса и успешного выхода их него, это очень важный момент. Если не будет банкротств, то и выхода легкого из кризиса не будет, и перспективы будущего развития расплывчаты. Ну а способность государства удерживать предприятия от банкротства зависит напрямую от цены на нефть. Так что дорогая нефть сегодня обойдется нам очень дорого в будущем\u0026raquo;, - считает Наталья Волчкова.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\r\n","~DETAIL_TEXT":"\r\n\u003Cdiv align=\u0022justify\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EУчастники интернет-конференции, организованной инвестиционным холдингом \u0026laquo;ФИНАМ\u0026raquo;, сошлись во мнении, что возобновление российской экономики начнется только через 1-1,5 года после стабилизации ведущих мировых экономик. При этом окончание кризисного этапа в последних предрекают уже в конце 2009. Часть экспертов, среди которых и директор Института проблем глобализации Михаил Делягин, полагают, что Россия еще столкнется с новой волной негативных тенденций, в частности, существенной девальвацией рубля в обозримом будущем.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u0026laquo;Думаю, что 2010 год тоже будет кризисным. И это будет, в общем-то, удивительно, потому что мировая экономика будет потихоньку восстанавливаться. Но в том-то и дело, что мы со своим ручным управлением настолько деформируем и без того далеко не идеальную российскую рыночную экономику, что она станет не очень восприимчивой даже к позитивным сигналам извне. Не жду активного восстановления экономики и в 2011 году. А вот 2012 год вполне может стать первым годом реального восстановления. В любом случае, до уровня 2008 года российская экономика раньше 2013 года не восстановится\u0026raquo;, - полагает директор департамента стратегического анализа компании ФБК Игорь Николаев.\u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EГруппа экспертов, включающая профессора Российской экономической школы Наталью Волчкову, полагает, что слишком легкий выход из кризиса может оказать дурную услугу российской экономике. \u003C\/span\u003E\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u0026laquo;Пока не было громких банкротств. И это не потому, что российские предприятия и банки очень эффективны и могут успешно работать и в условиях кризиса. Это и потому, что пока их спасают государственные вливания, и потому, что законодательство не очень эффективное, и неопределенность будущего велика. Но, с точки зрения завершения кризиса и успешного выхода их него, это очень важный момент. Если не будет банкротств, то и выхода легкого из кризиса не будет, и перспективы будущего развития расплывчаты. Ну а способность государства удерживать предприятия от банкротства зависит напрямую от цены на нефть. Так что дорогая нефть сегодня обойдется нам очень дорого в будущем\u0026raquo;, - считает Наталья Волчкова.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\r\n","DETAIL_TEXT_TYPE":"html","~DETAIL_TEXT_TYPE":"html","PREVIEW_TEXT":"По их мнению, в России кризис продлится на 1-1,5 года дольше, чем в ведущих странах.","~PREVIEW_TEXT":"По их мнению, в России кризис продлится на 1-1,5 года дольше, чем в ведущих странах.","PREVIEW_TEXT_TYPE":"text","~PREVIEW_TEXT_TYPE":"text","DETAIL_PICTURE":{"ID":"153948","TIMESTAMP_X":"29.01.2015 13:59:06","MODULE_ID":"iblock","HEIGHT":"145","WIDTH":"200","FILE_SIZE":"17034","CONTENT_TYPE":"image\/jpeg","SUBDIR":"iblock\/d4c","FILE_NAME":"produkty.jpg","ORIGINAL_NAME":"produkty.jpg","DESCRIPTION":"","HANDLER_ID":null,"EXTERNAL_ID":null,"VERSION_ORIGINAL_ID":null,"META":"","SRC":"\/upload\/iblock\/d4c\/produkty.jpg"},"~DETAIL_PICTURE":"153948","ACTIVE_FROM_X":"2009-08-27 09:11:03","~ACTIVE_FROM_X":"2009-08-27 09:11:03","ACTIVE_FROM":"27.08.2009 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