Эксперты считают девальвацию рубля абсолютно оправданной

{"ID":"294562","~ID":"294562","TAGS":"рубль, доллар, нефть","~TAGS":"рубль, доллар, нефть","NAME":"Эксперты считают девальвацию рубля абсолютно оправданной","~NAME":"Эксперты считают девальвацию рубля абсолютно оправданной","IBLOCK_ID":"54","~IBLOCK_ID":"54","IBLOCK_SECTION_ID":"829","~IBLOCK_SECTION_ID":"829","DETAIL_TEXT":" \r\n\u003Cdiv align=\u0022justify\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EВ рамках интернет-конференции, организованной холдингом \u0026laquo;Финам\u0026raquo;, эксперты сходятся во мнении, что меры, предпринятые Центральным банком РФ по плавному девальвированию рубля, были абсолютно оправданы несмотря на сопутствующую значительную трату золото-валютных резервов. По их мнению, плавная девальвация национальной валюты позволила избежать возникновения мощнейшего кризиса банковской системы. Кроме того, отмечается, что дальнейшее снижение курса рубля возможно при падении цен на нефть до 20-25 долл. за баррель. До этих значений ЦБ продолжит удерживать курс рубля.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E \u0026laquo;Экономика чувствует себя лучше, когда влияние внешних шоков сглаживается. На мой взгляд, ЦБ сделал все верно - не допустил жесткого кризиса в банковской системе, позволил увеличить валютные активы банков за счет своих резервов. В противном случае мы получили бы шок в банковской системе и как следствие - шок в остальных отраслях. Сейчас мы являемся свидетелями больше кредитного шока, чем валютного. Классический валютный шок - ситуация 98 года. Спрашивается, зачем ЦБ, имея резервы в $500 млрд. не попытаться сгладить влияние внешних факторов?\u0026raquo; - отмечает Егор Федоров,  начальник отдела анализа долговых рынков Банка Москвы\u003C\/span\u003E.\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u0026laquo;Вопрос скорости девальвации рубля крайне дискуссионный, т.к. затрагивает интересы широкого круга экономических агентов: экспортеров, импортеров, кредитных организаций, Центрального банка... Причем выбор какой-либо стратегии приводит к конфликту интересов различных групп. Но в общем случае - резкие колебания валютного курса отрицательно влияют на всю экономическую систему, особенно если учесть тот факт, что в последние годы значительно увеличились валютные заимствования корпораций. Поэтому регулирование валютного курса - вещь абсолютно правильная, для этого ЗВР и предназначены. Тем не менее, можно обсуждать, насколько последовательно это осуществлялось...\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EК сожалению, как ни банально это звучит, все зависит от цен на нефть. При нынешнем курсе платежный баланс улучшился. Меры ЦБ по контролю за ликвидностью работают. Но в случае нового сокращения валютных поступлений есть вероятность нового витка удешевления рубля\u0026raquo;, - констатирует Андрей Бобовников,  начальник отдела анализа регионов инвестиционного департамента ОАО \u0026quot;Промсвязьбанк\u0026quot;.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u0026laquo;Специфика российского рынка в том, что ему \u0026quot;противопоказано\u0026quot; нерегулируемое существование, в противном случае все приобретает характеристики хаоса. Возможно, это исторически сформировавшийся менталитет. Отсутствие ЦБ как главного провайдера ликвидности в системе, в конечном счете могло бы привести к тому, что банковская система могла бы оказаться \u0026quot;парализованной\u0026quot;, если бы вся свободная ликвидность оказалась бы на валютном рынке.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EНасколько я оцениваю выступления представителей власти, они пока не говорят о какой-либо стабилизации, напротив, мы еще не увидели всех \u0026quot;прелестей\u0026quot; текущего кризиса. Очевидно, что в условиях неопределенности все стараются \u0026quot;бежать\u0026quot; из рубля. Главный вопрос в том, насколько это оправдано. 41 руб. или больше, как я полагаю, во многом будет зависеть от главного фактора - цены на нефть, как индикатора для расчетов финансовых планов государства\u0026raquo;, - поясняет Ольга Ефремова, начальник отдела анализа долговых рынков \u0026quot;Номос-Банка\u0026quot;.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u0026laquo;Инфляция - это регулярный рост цен. То что мы увидим в 1-м квартале - разовый всплеск из-за девальвации. Если население увидит, что доллар не растет, а падает к рублю, объемы покупок со стороны населения снизятся. Плюс, действительно, торговый баланс у нас должен быстро прийти в равновесие. От нашей нефти никто не откажется, а вот мы можем сократить импорт, т.к. это в значительной степени предметы не первой необходимости с высокой эластичностью спроса\u0026raquo;, - считает Михаил Галкин, начальник отдела анализа рынка облигаций и кредитного риска \u0026quot;МДМ-Банка\u0026quot;.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u0026laquo;С точки зрения перспективы ближайших месяцев: во-первых, есть общая напряженность на финансовых рынках, стабильность на этом фоне цен международного сырьевого, прежде всего, энергетического сегмента. Меры макроэкономического стимулирования, проведенные в последние кварталы ведущими мировыми регулирующими структурами, очевидно, отражаются сейчас постепенно на рыночной ситуации.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EВо-вторых, у ЦБ на этом фоне появилась возможность сократить объем своих уступок банковскому сектору, тем более, что текущие уровни стоимости рубля РФ на валютном рынке, на мой взгляд, близки к их фундаментально обоснованным значениям\u0026raquo;, - резюмирует Александр Осин,  главный экономист УК \u0026quot;Финам менеджмент\u0026quot;.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\r\n ","~DETAIL_TEXT":" \r\n\u003Cdiv align=\u0022justify\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EВ рамках интернет-конференции, организованной холдингом \u0026laquo;Финам\u0026raquo;, эксперты сходятся во мнении, что меры, предпринятые Центральным банком РФ по плавному девальвированию рубля, были абсолютно оправданы несмотря на сопутствующую значительную трату золото-валютных резервов. По их мнению, плавная девальвация национальной валюты позволила избежать возникновения мощнейшего кризиса банковской системы. Кроме того, отмечается, что дальнейшее снижение курса рубля возможно при падении цен на нефть до 20-25 долл. за баррель. До этих значений ЦБ продолжит удерживать курс рубля.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E \u0026laquo;Экономика чувствует себя лучше, когда влияние внешних шоков сглаживается. На мой взгляд, ЦБ сделал все верно - не допустил жесткого кризиса в банковской системе, позволил увеличить валютные активы банков за счет своих резервов. В противном случае мы получили бы шок в банковской системе и как следствие - шок в остальных отраслях. Сейчас мы являемся свидетелями больше кредитного шока, чем валютного. Классический валютный шок - ситуация 98 года. Спрашивается, зачем ЦБ, имея резервы в $500 млрд. не попытаться сгладить влияние внешних факторов?\u0026raquo; - отмечает Егор Федоров,  начальник отдела анализа долговых рынков Банка Москвы\u003C\/span\u003E.\r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u0026laquo;Вопрос скорости девальвации рубля крайне дискуссионный, т.к. затрагивает интересы широкого круга экономических агентов: экспортеров, импортеров, кредитных организаций, Центрального банка... Причем выбор какой-либо стратегии приводит к конфликту интересов различных групп. Но в общем случае - резкие колебания валютного курса отрицательно влияют на всю экономическую систему, особенно если учесть тот факт, что в последние годы значительно увеличились валютные заимствования корпораций. Поэтому регулирование валютного курса - вещь абсолютно правильная, для этого ЗВР и предназначены. Тем не менее, можно обсуждать, насколько последовательно это осуществлялось...\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EК сожалению, как ни банально это звучит, все зависит от цен на нефть. При нынешнем курсе платежный баланс улучшился. Меры ЦБ по контролю за ликвидностью работают. Но в случае нового сокращения валютных поступлений есть вероятность нового витка удешевления рубля\u0026raquo;, - констатирует Андрей Бобовников,  начальник отдела анализа регионов инвестиционного департамента ОАО \u0026quot;Промсвязьбанк\u0026quot;.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u0026laquo;Специфика российского рынка в том, что ему \u0026quot;противопоказано\u0026quot; нерегулируемое существование, в противном случае все приобретает характеристики хаоса. Возможно, это исторически сформировавшийся менталитет. Отсутствие ЦБ как главного провайдера ликвидности в системе, в конечном счете могло бы привести к тому, что банковская система могла бы оказаться \u0026quot;парализованной\u0026quot;, если бы вся свободная ликвидность оказалась бы на валютном рынке.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EНасколько я оцениваю выступления представителей власти, они пока не говорят о какой-либо стабилизации, напротив, мы еще не увидели всех \u0026quot;прелестей\u0026quot; текущего кризиса. Очевидно, что в условиях неопределенности все стараются \u0026quot;бежать\u0026quot; из рубля. Главный вопрос в том, насколько это оправдано. 41 руб. или больше, как я полагаю, во многом будет зависеть от главного фактора - цены на нефть, как индикатора для расчетов финансовых планов государства\u0026raquo;, - поясняет Ольга Ефремова, начальник отдела анализа долговых рынков \u0026quot;Номос-Банка\u0026quot;.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u0026laquo;Инфляция - это регулярный рост цен. То что мы увидим в 1-м квартале - разовый всплеск из-за девальвации. Если население увидит, что доллар не растет, а падает к рублю, объемы покупок со стороны населения снизятся. Плюс, действительно, торговый баланс у нас должен быстро прийти в равновесие. От нашей нефти никто не откажется, а вот мы можем сократить импорт, т.к. это в значительной степени предметы не первой необходимости с высокой эластичностью спроса\u0026raquo;, - считает Михаил Галкин, начальник отдела анализа рынка облигаций и кредитного риска \u0026quot;МДМ-Банка\u0026quot;.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u0026laquo;С точки зрения перспективы ближайших месяцев: во-первых, есть общая напряженность на финансовых рынках, стабильность на этом фоне цен международного сырьевого, прежде всего, энергетического сегмента. Меры макроэкономического стимулирования, проведенные в последние кварталы ведущими мировыми регулирующими структурами, очевидно, отражаются сейчас постепенно на рыночной ситуации.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EВо-вторых, у ЦБ на этом фоне появилась возможность сократить объем своих уступок банковскому сектору, тем более, что текущие уровни стоимости рубля РФ на валютном рынке, на мой взгляд, близки к их фундаментально обоснованным значениям\u0026raquo;, - резюмирует Александр Осин,  главный экономист УК \u0026quot;Финам менеджмент\u0026quot;.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\r\n ","DETAIL_TEXT_TYPE":"html","~DETAIL_TEXT_TYPE":"html","PREVIEW_TEXT":"Дальнейшее снижение курса рубля возможно при падении цен на нефть до 20-25 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