По мнению экспертов, кризис может затянуться на пять лет

{"ID":"257887","~ID":"257887","TAGS":"","~TAGS":"","NAME":"По мнению экспертов, кризис может затянуться на пять лет ","~NAME":"По мнению экспертов, кризис может затянуться на пять лет ","IBLOCK_ID":"54","~IBLOCK_ID":"54","IBLOCK_SECTION_ID":"829","~IBLOCK_SECTION_ID":"829","DETAIL_TEXT":"\r\n\u003Cdiv align=\u0022justify\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EВ рамках интернет-конференции, организованной холдингом \u0026laquo;Финам\u0026raquo;, эксперты сходятся во мнениии, что ситуация в США в ближайшее время может ухудшиться, а так как глобальные экономические процессы по-прежнему во многом определяются состоянием экономики данного государства, на выход из кризиса глобальной экономике может понадобится значительно больше обозначенных ранее двух лет. По предварительным прогнозам кризис может затянуться ещё на пять лет. \u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\tВ возможность развивающихся стран взять на себя роль локомотива мировой экономики эксперты тоже не верят.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u0026laquo;На Америку завязано более 20% мирового ВВП, что, конечно, очень много. Другое дело, что при этом степень вовлеченности в глобальный кризис тех или иных стран существенно отличается, и реакция нашей экономики существенно более болезненная, чем большинства европейских стран или даже Китая (у них рост промпроизводства тормозится, у нас зафиксирован резкий спад). На мой взгляд, главный ресурс - доверие населения и бизнеса к экономической политике, и он у нас в дефиците\u0026raquo;, - отмечает зам. руководителя аналитического департамента компании \u0026laquo;Совлинк\u0026raquo; Ольга Беленькая. \u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E \u0026laquo;Не тешьте себя иллюзиями: это не обычная рецессия. Прежними методами ее можно только затянуть. Мир становится другим, это очень серьезный adjustment. Пессимистичный вариант - через 4-5 лет. Более приятный - через года полтора-два. Если изобретательные американцы не успеют опять изобрести нечто технологически прорывное\u0026raquo;, - призвал руководитель отдела экономического анализа МДМ-Банка Николай Кащеев. \u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u0026laquo;Курсы бондов поднялись до рекордного уровня и сигнализируют скорое наступление в США дефляции вместе с жесточайшей рецессией\u0026raquo;, - поддержал его руководитель отдела брокерских услуг на международных рынках ИК \u0026laquo;ФИНАМ\u0026raquo; Павел Лось. \u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E \u0026laquo;Я думаю, будущий год будет годом \u0026quot;китайского разочарования\u0026quot;. Сейчас все надеются, что Китай сможет заменить США в качестве локомотива мировой экономики. Но этого не будет. Не будет китайский экспорт расти в ситуации глобальной депрессии... До сих пор мода на БРИК в значительной степени поддерживались именно США и другими западными странами, откуда в БРИК шли многомиллиардные суммы. А с минувшего августа всё закончилось, и деньги срочно потребовались дома. И весь БРИК рухнул за несколько недель. \u0026quot;Горячая осень\u0026quot;-то была не только на российских биржах...\u0026raquo;, - рассказал Павел Лось. \u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E \u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E Руководитель отдела анализа мировых рынков ИК \u0026laquo;ФИНАМ\u0026raquo; Михаил Аристакесян и Ольга Беленькая считают вероятным завершение кризиса в 2010 году. Наиболее оптимистичен главный экономист ФК \u0026laquo;Открытие\u0026raquo; Данила Левченко: \u0026laquo;Где-нибудь к концу следующего года. Все-таки рецессия и так уже долго длится\u0026raquo;. \u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EВ оценке перспектив ведущих мировых валют экономисты расходятся. Ольга Беленькая не исключает девальвации доллара в ближайшие два года: \u0026laquo;Но произойдет это по мере снижения угрозы дефляции и оживления экономической активности. Пока доллар рассматривается как идеальная форма хранения \u0026quot;кэша\u0026quot;, и для девальвации должна появиться какая-то разумная альтернатива\u0026raquo;. Павел Лось, напротив, позитивно смотрит на будущее американской валюты: \u0026laquo;Девальвация возможна лишь в том случае, если американцы упустят ситуацию из-под контроля. Пока на это не похоже: действуют решительно и быстро. На фоне этих действий сильно блекнут антикризисные меры европейцев, у которых самое худшее еще впереди. Так что не считаю, что Америка прибегнет к девальвации. Не исключено, что удешевлять свои валюты придется другим\u0026raquo;. \u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\r\n ","~DETAIL_TEXT":"\r\n\u003Cdiv align=\u0022justify\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EВ рамках интернет-конференции, организованной холдингом \u0026laquo;Финам\u0026raquo;, эксперты сходятся во мнениии, что ситуация в США в ближайшее время может ухудшиться, а так как глобальные экономические процессы по-прежнему во многом определяются состоянием экономики данного государства, на выход из кризиса глобальной экономике может понадобится значительно больше обозначенных ранее двух лет. По предварительным прогнозам кризис может затянуться ещё на пять лет. \u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\tВ возможность развивающихся стран взять на себя роль локомотива мировой экономики эксперты тоже не верят.\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u0026laquo;На Америку завязано более 20% мирового ВВП, что, конечно, очень много. Другое дело, что при этом степень вовлеченности в глобальный кризис тех или иных стран существенно отличается, и реакция нашей экономики существенно более болезненная, чем большинства европейских стран или даже Китая (у них рост промпроизводства тормозится, у нас зафиксирован резкий спад). На мой взгляд, главный ресурс - доверие населения и бизнеса к экономической политике, и он у нас в дефиците\u0026raquo;, - отмечает зам. руководителя аналитического департамента компании \u0026laquo;Совлинк\u0026raquo; Ольга Беленькая. \u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E \u0026laquo;Не тешьте себя иллюзиями: это не обычная рецессия. Прежними методами ее можно только затянуть. Мир становится другим, это очень серьезный adjustment. Пессимистичный вариант - через 4-5 лет. Более приятный - через года полтора-два. Если изобретательные американцы не успеют опять изобрести нечто технологически прорывное\u0026raquo;, - призвал руководитель отдела экономического анализа МДМ-Банка Николай Кащеев. \u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u0026laquo;Курсы бондов поднялись до рекордного уровня и сигнализируют скорое наступление в США дефляции вместе с жесточайшей рецессией\u0026raquo;, - поддержал его руководитель отдела брокерских услуг на международных рынках ИК \u0026laquo;ФИНАМ\u0026raquo; Павел Лось. \u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E \u0026laquo;Я думаю, будущий год будет годом \u0026quot;китайского разочарования\u0026quot;. Сейчас все надеются, что Китай сможет заменить США в качестве локомотива мировой экономики. Но этого не будет. Не будет китайский экспорт расти в ситуации глобальной депрессии... До сих пор мода на БРИК в значительной степени поддерживались именно США и другими западными странами, откуда в БРИК шли многомиллиардные суммы. А с минувшего августа всё закончилось, и деньги срочно потребовались дома. И весь БРИК рухнул за несколько недель. \u0026quot;Горячая осень\u0026quot;-то была не только на российских биржах...\u0026raquo;, - рассказал Павел Лось. \u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E \u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E Руководитель отдела анализа мировых рынков ИК \u0026laquo;ФИНАМ\u0026raquo; Михаил Аристакесян и Ольга Беленькая считают вероятным завершение кризиса в 2010 году. Наиболее оптимистичен главный экономист ФК \u0026laquo;Открытие\u0026raquo; Данила Левченко: \u0026laquo;Где-нибудь к концу следующего года. Все-таки рецессия и так уже долго длится\u0026raquo;. \u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003EВ оценке перспектив ведущих мировых валют экономисты расходятся. Ольга Беленькая не исключает девальвации доллара в ближайшие два года: \u0026laquo;Но произойдет это по мере снижения угрозы дефляции и оживления экономической активности. Пока доллар рассматривается как идеальная форма хранения \u0026quot;кэша\u0026quot;, и для девальвации должна появиться какая-то разумная альтернатива\u0026raquo;. Павел Лось, напротив, позитивно смотрит на будущее американской валюты: \u0026laquo;Девальвация возможна лишь в том случае, если американцы упустят ситуацию из-под контроля. Пока на это не похоже: действуют решительно и быстро. На фоне этих действий сильно блекнут антикризисные меры европейцев, у которых самое худшее еще впереди. Так что не считаю, что Америка прибегнет к девальвации. Не исключено, что удешевлять свои валюты придется другим\u0026raquo;. \u003C\/span\u003E \r\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022kobl-text-content\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\r\n ","DETAIL_TEXT_TYPE":"html","~DETAIL_TEXT_TYPE":"html","PREVIEW_TEXT":"«Не тешьте себя иллюзиями: это не обычная рецессия. Прежними методами ее можно только затянуть», - отмечает руководитель отдела экономического анализа МДМ-Банка Николай Кащеев. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n","~PREVIEW_TEXT":"«Не тешьте себя иллюзиями: это не обычная рецессия. Прежними методами ее можно только затянуть», - отмечает руководитель отдела экономического анализа МДМ-Банка Николай Кащеев. \r\n","PREVIEW_TEXT_TYPE":"text","~PREVIEW_TEXT_TYPE":"text","DETAIL_PICTURE":{"ID":"84750","TIMESTAMP_X":"28.01.2015 17:45:05","MODULE_ID":"iblock","HEIGHT":"120","WIDTH":"200","FILE_SIZE":"6465","CONTENT_TYPE":"image\/jpeg","SUBDIR":"iblock\/0fd","FILE_NAME":"bs40.jpeg","ORIGINAL_NAME":"bs40.jpeg","DESCRIPTION":"","HANDLER_ID":null,"EXTERNAL_ID":null,"VERSION_ORIGINAL_ID":null,"META":"","SRC":"\/upload\/iblock\/0fd\/bs40.jpeg"},"~DETAIL_PICTURE":"84750","ACTIVE_FROM_X":"2008-12-19 11:37:15","~ACTIVE_FROM_X":"2008-12-19 11:37:15","ACTIVE_FROM":"19.12.2008 11:37:15","~ACTIVE_FROM":"19.12.2008 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